The rebound yesterday held fairly well, but USDJPY weakness this morning is softening up the futures. Here’s the recap on SPX, showing the TL from 2012 holding, and a probable test of the 20 and 50 day moving averages at the purple .618 if the bulls can keep it together.
There’s clearly much more downside potential if the red TL doesn’t hold — with the SMA200 coming up on the white .618 toward the end of the month.
Whatever the impetus might be left in last week’s move, the USDJPY algos are clearly back in charge. The eminis won’t make a move without it — though sometimes the AUDUSD, VIX or ZN’s come into play.
The USDJPY tagged its SMA100 this morning, after failing to retake the SMA200 yesterday. I don’t see any serious impediments on the chart, as the BOJ has reestablished an upward trend for the pair. And, the Japanese economic data is worsening daily. But, with all the moving averages bunched up like this, we’re likely to see plenty of chop in the days ahead.