Lots of action in the USDJPY in response to the employment report. This is a 1-minute chart:
I continue to expect it to benefit from a falling euro but get dinged by a rising yen — in other words, more see-sawing between 80-84.
I expect the BOJ won’t take any additional easing measures in the their first April meeting next week, even though the damage from the increased sales tax will have already begun. This should rattle a few carry-traders.
The daily chart shows the five day spurt sputtering yesterday, having difficulty topping the TL from 1999 that it first backtested on Mar 7 [but, popped above following Yellen’s testimony on Dec 18; like the 10-yr, it’s looking like a ramp job that lost its footing.]
The BOJ has their hands full. Unlike the Fed, which bristles at the suggestion that it’s propping up equity markets, buying equities outright is part of the BOJ’s master plan. They arm-wrestled the Nikkei back into the broken channel from 2011, but just ran into the falling purple channel top and the .886 Fib (white.)
No help from the Fed today, as it’s one of only 4 days without POMO (also April 17, 18, 30) left in the month. But, the ramp is already in. SPX will be looking to bag 1900 today.
Lest anyone look at this as a “healthy” market, the trend of all the market’s gains coming in the after hours continues [see: Are Bears Doomed?] In the past week, 62 points of the e-minis 48-pt net gain have come overnight.
If this channel breaks on USDJPY…
Getting close to a good bounce spot here at 1856-1858.
Logical place for a bounce here at the purple .618…