The red channel broke down intra-day, but is back in business.
The close-up shows the 4:01 rally that screwed cash market traders who shorted the red channel breakdown. The overnight ramp job on up to the .886 was the salt in the wound. Just to be clear, this is not a market.
After tagging the red channel bottom for the second time in a week, USDJPY has put in a strong A-B-C move to a TL (red, dashed) off the Apr 21 and Apr 22 highs.
Note that each day’s push beyond the falling grey channel boundary has failed. This one represents the first higher high in the past week, so it’s a more strenuous effort to break the trend.
Whether or not it can is not terribly relevant, as SPX/ES don’t require new highs on USDJPY (thin purple line below) to play the carry trade game. Rehashing the same old highs seems to work just fine.
UPDATE: 10:29 AM
USDJPY saw an impressive reaction off that TL — took it all the way back to the red channel bottom and back inside the grey channel top.
There’s another TL here that might offer support at a .500 Fib level, but 101.96 would be stronger support at the .618 and yellow channel midline.
The bulls need a push back above the red channel bottom muy pronto, but a bounce at 101.96 would make for a stronger move.