I hope everyone had a happy Easter holiday. We’ve had a relatively quiet Sunday and early Monday in the markets — with the futures up only slightly despite a strong rally in the USDJPY.
Could be that investors don’t really see the currency pair going anywhere — as the Nikkei’s price action doesn’t support it.
Last Wednesday and Thursday had all the hallmarks of a breakout, but on very weak holiday style volume. In addition, VIX fell to only the .886 of its latest rally and 10-year notes rose only to well-defined resistance.
In other words, the breakout wasn’t as believable as it could have been. Trade safe.