Charts I’m Watching: Apr 2, 2013

The futures are pointed higher at the opening, though the dollar and the EURUSD and the eminis themselves — which is sitting at an .886 retracement of the yesterday’s move down — don’t support the idea of higher prices just yet.

With a 6 point pop on the opening, SPX will be right near its .886 (1569.19) as well, so playing along on the upside at the opening should be accompanied by tight stops — as this could easily be one of those lovely little pop and drops.

But, I’m still looking for 1576, as is just about everyone else, so this could be the overnight ramp-enabled push to reach it.

UPDATE:  9:35 AM

There’s the tag of 1569.19.  I’ll close here and revert to short, with stops right here at 1570.58 in case I’m wrong about the pop and drop potential.

And, just to get it off my chest, the chart patterns since the middle of March are have been some of the sloppiest, least well-formed, most forced (read “manipulated”) looking patterns I’ve seen in a long time.  This morning makes ten gaps up or down of 5+ points on the opening.

That is, 10 of the last 12 sessions have seen a 5+ point gap in the opening 15 minutes — with the average being 8.61 points.

Several of them have negated completed chart patterns that are normally 60-80% effective in predicting future moves, including two IH&S patterns and several Crab Patterns.

Clearly, the Street has an objective here, and it would be wise not to stand in the way.

UPDATE:  9:51 AM

Just got stopped out on the short, so I guess we’re going higher.  Watch out for the rising wedge (red, dashed) top at 1572ish and the factory orders due out in 10 minutes.  Could be that’s what the market makers are in a hurry to beat.  If the numbers are lousy, good luck hitting 1576 today.

UPDATE:  10:03 AM

The factory numbers were, in fact, lousy.  But, they won’t be reported that way.  The top line number was +3% versus expectations of +2.6% and Jan figures of -1.0%.

Gains without transportation were up only 0.3%.  Stripping away defense and aircraft, the figure actually fell 0.3%.

For a reality check (not that it’ll be reported in a million years), the top line number is down over 2% from January (not seasonally adjusted) and every single measure is lower than Feb of last year.

The top line number was good enough to get SPX to the top of the rising wedge, where it is reacting negatively.

Anyone who went long at the new high of 1570.58 might wish to take profits or place stops back at the .886 of 1569.19 just in case.  I believe I’ll do the latter, as this (albeit manipulated) rally seems destined to succeed in it’s one and only mission — a new high about which the talking heads can crow.

UPDATE:  10:37 AM

Just took another look at things and figured out where this is all going.  And, surprise!  It’s not 1576.

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