Boeing: Fixed?

Two weeks ago, after Boeing’s second 737 Max 8 crashed, I suggested the most obvious outcome from a charting standpoint [see: One Step Forward, Two Steps Back.] Obviously, BA is reacting to the second crash of its key 737 Max 8.  But, its chart already argued for a downturn before the latest tragedy.First order of … continue reading →

Macro Factor Cycles and Regime Shifts

Some time ago, I noticed that CL’s (WTI light sweet crude oil futures) three important tops since 2008 were almost the same number of days apart. This cycle certainly caught my eye.After tugging on that thread, I found a similar situation regarding CL’s lows. The 2001-2009 cycle was only 31 days longer than the 2009-2016 … continue reading →

FOMC Day: Mar 20, 2019

Pretty quiet here in the pre-market.  Futures have been mostly flat for the past few hours after yesterday’s failed attempt to hold the 1.272.The best allegory I’ve seen this morning is AAPL, which has been riding its SMA5 200 every day since breaking out above our 178.46 target.  Yesterday, just shy of its SMA200, it … continue reading →

VIX: A Death Cross

This morning, VIX’s 50-DMA passed below its 200-DMA — a death cross.  If it holds, this marks the end of the period following the golden cross on Nov 1.  For the uninitiated, a death cross is typically bearish for VIX, bullish for stocks. We must use a qualifier because death and golden crosses in VIX … continue reading →

The Plunge the PPT is Really Protecting

The call the President’s working group the Plunge Protection Team, presumably because it protects the market from plunging.  It think they’ve got it wrong.  What it really does is protect plunges in volatility that, in turn, trigger algos to buy stocks. The VIX smackdown that Mnuchin’s Plunge Protection Team unleashed on December 24 has now … continue reading →