A Nod to Black Monday

Thirty years ago today the DJIA plunged 508 points (22%) in a single day, sending traders and money managers scurrying for cover and analysts for an explanation. I was trading a (well-hedged) options-based risk arb portfolio at the time and remember well going toe to toe with my compliance department, which had panicked and wanted … continue reading →

Taylor Made

With John Taylor purportedly gaining in the running for next Fed chair, the US dollar shot past overhead resistance this morning.  In the process, it rejoined the rising channel from which it broke down and leapt back above the falling white channel midline. This is an aggressive move which, if it holds, changes the calculus … continue reading →

More Meltup, Please

Riding a bounce in oil and gas and the latest breakdown in VIX, S&P futures are up 2.25 this morning.  Nice blurb from Bill Blain on ZH this morning, echoing pretty closely what we’ve been saying for the past year or two.  Combine a market increasingly playing follow the leader (indexers, ETFs, algos, etc.) and … continue reading →

CPI Tops 2% Again

CPI came in at 2.2%, the lower end of our range.  At we showed last week, this was accomplished at least, in part, by deliberately understating the actual increase in gasoline prices for the month of September.  It was further depressed with the magical “seasonal adjustment” applied by the BLS. Core CPI came in at … continue reading →