Why the Market Will Crater…and, Why it Won’t

Once upon a time (1896), there was an index of 30 industrial stocks. It included such household names as the American Cotton Oil Company, the National Lead Company, and the US Rubber Company.  Since then, the components have changed 51 times. Today, it contains many non-industrial companies such as Disney, Intel, Goldman Sachs and Apple.  … continue reading →

Let’s Not and Say We Did

When the Fed says they’re not particularly concerned about inflation… it’s not because they’re not concerned.  It’s simply that they know the economy cannot function with higher interest rates — not with the level of debt sitting on personal, corporate and government balance sheets. They recently started slipping in the word “symmetric” to describe their … continue reading →

Once More, With Feeling

While SPX has pushed above its 2.24 Fib extension multiple time over the past two months, and has remained safely above the critical support for the past seven sessions.  ES, on the other hand, has really struggled.  Following a failed rally on Mar 21, ES didn’t even tag its (2728.79) again until May 11.  Since … continue reading →

Bonds and Value

As the 10-year pushes past 3%, we’re left to wonder whether flows will begin to favor bonds again.  In a world of 2.5% inflation, bonds might seem like a sucker’s bet.  In a world of 8-10% inflation, even more so.Yet, we often buy instruments with little long-term value but plenty of short- or medium-term appreciation … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: May 17, 2018

TNX reached 3.11 this morning, but DXY isn’t buying it.  We asked rhetorically, yesterday, whether “investors algos [will] even care about the stagnation which, abetted by inflation-driven higher interest rates, has ensnared the economy in its razor sharp talons?  Or, will a tumbling ‘risk indicator’ and copious share buybacks be enough to ward off a … continue reading →

No Free Lunch

While a higher dollar might help mitigate inflation, higher interest rates are starting to bite. Both mortgage refinancing and housing starts and permits tumbled in April. Futures tumbled about 5 points on the news.  But, even that was a problem, as SPX is perched precariously atop the critical support of its 2.24 Fib extension at … continue reading →