The Perks of a War with Iran

Futures reached new all-time highs overnight, ostensibly on hopes that the FOMC will cut rates in July.  While I’d never discount the importance of Fed guidance, futures were initially reversing lower until oil and VIX opened the door. First, there was VIX’s breakdown through a very obvious TL.  Algos eat this stuff up. If that … continue reading →

FOMC Day: Jun 19, 2019

Futures are flat this morning, but this comes on the heels of a 206-pt rally since ES tagged the 2.24 Fib extension at 2728 on Jun 3.  We’re used to seeing markets ramp higher before FOMC decisions.  When the Fed disappoints, the ramp provides a bigger buffer for the subsequent fall.  When the Fed delivers, … continue reading →

Play It Again, Mario

It’s the bulls’ favorite broken record, more easing from the ECB: “The (European) Treaty requires that our actions are both necessary and proportionate to fulfil our mandate and achieve our objective, which implies that the limits we establish on our tools are specific to the contingencies we face. If the crisis has shown anything, it … continue reading →

He Said, She Said

The “Iranian attack” on two oil tankers is looking sketchier by the minute.  Overnight, the president of the company which owns one of the tankers cast more doubt on the official narrative that the tankers were damaged by Iranian mines: …in remarks to Japanese media, the president of the company that owns the ship said … continue reading →

They Don’t Have a Clue!

So said Trump regarding the FOMC in a tweet this morning. This is because the Euro and other currencies are devalued against the dollar, putting the U.S. at a big disadvantage. The Fed Interest rate way to high, added to ridiculous quantitative tightening! They don’t have a clue! https://t.co/0CpnUzJqB9 With oil and gas having tanked … continue reading →