The Snoozefest Continues

All the bullish factors which have kept stocks aloft the past two sessions are still going at it.  Hence, the futures’ snoozefest even as Trump is about to be impeached.The only potential fly in the ointment remains oil and gas, which have reached an important decision point. continued for members… … continue reading →

The Bullish Case

I spend a lot of time and energy trying to spot potential downturns.  I think the average buy-and-hold investor needs to know when downside risk is elevated and when events occur that could trigger a substantial drop.  Even when things are apparently going well, I always post support levels just in case.  While there’s a … continue reading →

Just Two Things

The first is that VIX has again been hammered below a trend line dating back to Nov 2017.  The algos are all over this and futures have soared 17 points. Total capitulation, at least for the time being.The second is that gas prices remain stubbornly high – signaling a coming spike in inflation unless prices … continue reading →

Inflation Games

Inflation drives interest rates. Though the Fed probably wishes it didn’t, it’s an inconvenient truth.  There are much tighter correlations, but consider the strong positive correlation between CPI and 10Y notes. This matters, of course, because with $22 trillion in debt, the US faces the same problem as the ECB and Japan: High interest rates … continue reading →