The Nikkei barely paused at the .886 Fib yesterday, choosing instead to backtest it in order to leave its options open. The weekly chart shows that, should the last high be broken, the next serious Fib resistance isn’t until the larger scale .886 in the 17,100 area. This works with the channel and TLs. The … continue reading →
Category Archives: Charts I’m Watching
Well, we got both our upside and downside targets — all in quick succession.and downside targets — all in quick succession. But, what’s really caught my eye is the Nikkei — which reached a large scale .886 — and the USDJPY — which reached the large scale 1.618. Neither has backed off appreciably, but they … continue reading →
Not much consolidation after yesterday’s Hilsen-rally. So, I’d look for a backtest of the SMA10/20’s on any pullback. Otherwise, SPX never reached the .786 or .886 yeaterday. Those would have to be the immediate upside targets. The SMA50 looks miles away, now. But, as the talking heads have pointed out, anything can happen on FOMC … continue reading →
Good channel resistance here… would make a nice turning point if the SMA50 is going to be tested. UPDATE: 5:30 PM Coulda, shoulda, woulda… Hilsenrath says the Fed will keep the juices flowing, and that’s all the “market” needed to hear. I have no trouble believing it, as the end of QE is enough of … continue reading →
There’s no Fibonacci argument for lower prices in SPX at the present time; but, the fact that the USD remains stuck at the inflection point we discussed last week suggests this corrective move down from 2011 isn’t yet complete. Recall that the .886 Fib is a larger scale reversal point that coincides with a channel … continue reading →
It’s a battle of the channels… If the red channel holds, we should revisit the yellow neckline. As always, keep an eye on USDJPY. It is extremely overbought. But, the guys writing the script are stuck. Any move lower will tank stocks. The market is addicted to an ever cheaper yen. Withdrawal won’t be pretty. … continue reading →
Another disappointing jobs report — which last week led to a market rally as it was interpreted as a hindrance to Fed rate hikes. Trade safely. The dollar chart has my attention today, as DX has completed a Bat Pattern at the key channel midline line. It has failed to advance past the midline five … continue reading →
USDJPY ramp continued into the night, tagging the daily 1.272 and completing a Butterfly Pattern. As we’ve often warned, a decline in USDJPY could end the dollar-yen carry trade momentum stocks have enjoyed since Abe first began trashing the yen. There have been two very interesting developments in the past 24 hours. First, The BOJ … continue reading →
Continuing the theme began yesterday of big picture items, we’ll take a quick look at interest rates. The 10-yr note was another of those bearish charts from earlier in the year. While the talking heads insist that lower rates would be a good thing for stocks, the chart shows otherwise. Reversals from tags of a … continue reading →
SPX and ES ramped strongly into the close after tagging our initial downside target Friday, but there’s been plenty of negative news (China, EU, Japan, Ukraine) in the last 72 hours — adding to a somewhat confusing Fib picture. Note the strong swings in either direction in the past week, repeatedly crossing the IH&S neckline. … continue reading →