The Path to 350

And, no, I’m not talking about Apple.  Although, come to think of it… At some point, the analogy I’ve been drawing since May between the 2007/8 and the 2011 market tops will fail.  In the meantime, the 2007/8 top has served as an amazingly accurate guide as to the current market’s direction. It might be … continue reading →


Some ideas I’m toying with this weekend…  Parallel lines that seem to do a pretty good job of correlating from one cycle to the next.  This series was established by drawing a trend line from the 2007 to the 2011 top, then copying it and dragging it elsewhere on the chart — keeping the line … continue reading →

Too Big to Bail

From the IMF, the long awaited September 2011 Global Financial Stability Report Chapter One comments on China.  Highlights from Box 1.5, shown in its entirety below: projecting significant write-downs of public sector liabilities, which amount to 27% of GDP total debt 173% of GDP rapid growth in off-balance sheet and non-bank loans 60%+ surge in … continue reading →