Is Market Integrity Even a Thing Anymore?

Want to know where markets are going?  Just check Facebook.  The stock, that is. As I pointed out in March [see: Facebook Flops] the stock is a very reliable indicator of overall market direction.  And, right now, it’s threatening new all-time highs. But, its accomplishment raises an important question: does it matter how the stock … continue reading →

Is it Safe?

One of my favorite big-picture indicators is the spread between 10-year and 2-year yields.  Members have seen this chart many times.  It shows that previous sharp expansions of the spread — not the state of being inverted — signaled the coming equity crashes.Looking at the components separately, we can see exactly what happens when the … continue reading →

Why the Market Will Crater…and, Why it Won’t

Once upon a time (1896), there was an index of 30 industrial stocks. It included such household names as the American Cotton Oil Company, the National Lead Company, and the US Rubber Company.  Since then, the components have changed 51 times. Today, it contains many non-industrial companies such as Disney, Intel, Goldman Sachs and Apple.  … continue reading →