Why Interest Rates Must Not Rise

In May 2014 many of us were shocked by a report that Ben Bernanke, who had recently departed the Fed, told a group of wealthy investors that he did “not expect the federal funds rate…to rise back to its long-term average of around 4%” in his lifetime. I remember feeling Bernanke’s statement represented both extraordinary … continue reading →

Deutsche Bank: Kann Dieses Schwein Pfeifen?

There’s a lovely English figure of speech which suggests the ridiculousness of something happening: “when pigs fly.”  In German, the same sentiment can be expressed by the expression “ich glaub mein Schwein pfeift” which means “I believe my pig whistles.”  DB is surely trying, but it’s having a hell of a time whistling a happy … continue reading →

Algos to VIX: Thank You for Your Service

When USDJPY, WTI and TNX all plunge, stock prices almost always follow suit.  When they don’t, it’s usually because VIX is signaling the algos that there’s nothing to worry about. It’s no surprise, then, that the three equity breakouts (the purple, gray and white channels) we’ve seen over the past month have all been precipitated … continue reading →