Better Late Than Never

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SPX nailed the upper end of our initial target range on Wednesday, and the bottom of it yesterday — both on a pop-and-drop as expected.  But, I was disappointed not to have reached the overshoot target we discussed in yesterday morning’s post:

While 1887.87 was the upper end of our range, 1880 was the lower end…where the actual neckline of the huge H&S Pattern crosses.  Even then, it’s not carved in stone.  H&S Patterns often complete and then some before TPTB snap it back into place back above the neckline.  So, the ultimate downside for this move, if it hasn’t registered already, could well come intraday at the white .886 at 1856.46…

After tagging 1880, we spent the next hour or so wondering whether or not another leg down would materialize and allow the 1856 tag.  But, the algos took over, driven by CL, USDJPY and NKD.  VIX and TNX even got into the act as TPTB saw an opportunity to reframe some bearish chart patterns.

Though we registered nearly a 3% gain on the day, it was somewhat disappointing to think that the market had resumed its role as a “market.”  On the eve of OPEX, it seemed that 1856 would at least be postponed to Monday — which just goes to show how constant manipulation can warp our expectations.

2016-01-15 SPX 15 0606What a difference a day — or, at least, new lows in USDJPY — makes.  This morning, we will be well on our way to that next downside target courtesy of BoJ’s Kuroda who, when asked last night why he’s not propping up the market, replied “wait, I thought the Fed had that!”

The e-minis are off almost 50 points, and with 15 minutes to go aren’t exactly bouncing.

2016-01-15 ES 60 0605All this begs the question: “if/when we reach 1856, will the carnage end there?”

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