Bad Good News

Yesterday, SPX nailed our downside target from May 26 — a drop from 2134.72 to 2093.44.  It was a whopping 1.93% — though, from all the excitement, you’d think the “market” was crashing.  That’s what happens when investors come to expect uninterrupted daily gains.2015-06-05 SPX 60 0530With this morning’s better than expected jobs report, investors are once again being reminded that their success has come courtesy of central bankers.  And, if employment looks especially rosy, how much longer will the Fed keep rates in the cellar? [hint: a long, long time.]

Our targets are being hit left and right — some in reaction to the “bad” good news — others in an attempt to mitigate its effects. USDJPY just tagged the white 1.618 we discussed yesterday…

2015-06-05 USDJPY daily 0530…and, CL reversed after slightly overshooting our downside target at 57.59 (even after OPEC members voted to maintain current production levels.)

2015-06-05 CL 60 0530TNX slightly overshot the white channel midline — but, ran right into the red channel midline.2015-06-05 TNX daily 0530I have to be away from the office for a few hours this morning, so I’ll dispense with the members’ section today.  Assuming (as we do) that USDJPY runs out of steam at 125.72 and CL bounces back at 57.09 or so and TNX tops out at 24.38, SPX should have little trouble tagging our next downside target at 2082ish, with an overshoot a distinct possibility.

Note this is the SMA100, which has provided strong support over the past many months.  Of course, that was before completion of the Last Big Butterfly Pattern.







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