About pebblewriter

I left Wall Street in August 2001 (95th floor of World Trade 2...timing IS everything) and continue to trade for fun and profit. I hold undergrad degrees in Math and Econ, an MBA and am a CFA. Which is all to say -- I have no excuse for the miserable mistakes I often make. This blog serves as a means to keep myself honest and my thoughts organized. It should not be construed as advice regarding any particular strategy or security.

PCE Tops 2%

It’s been a long time coming.  But, the Fed’s favored measure of inflation finally topped its long-stated target of 2%. Of course, they prefer the “core PCE” which excludes food and energy price changes.  Why?  It’s lower, and at 1.8%, puts less pressure on them to normalize rates.   Either one of them is preferable to the … continue reading →

Happy Brexit Day

Everybody’s wondering whether Brexit will matter. With futures flat and currencies seemingly in the spotlight, we’ll spend the day revisiting our forecast for various currency pairs. We’ll also take a look at oil and gas.  These are the last few days of the month. And, given that gas prices are up about 28% YoY, we’ll … continue reading →

Gold: Following the Yellow Brick Road

I’m not a gold bug.  I’ve always thought the price is pretty heavily manipulated (long before it hit the headlines) and I guess I’ve avoided it on principle.  Looking back at my forecasts over the past year or so, that was probably a mistake. Since our December 14, 2015 forecast, GC has gained about 19% … continue reading →

Betwixt and Between

SPX and ES managed to hold key trend lines and channels yesterday, bouncing from just short of our downside targets to exactly where we expected.  All it took was an 18.3% hammering of VIX — no problem for the Masters of the Universe (real subtle, guys!) But, there was no breakout.  There wasn’t even an overnight … continue reading →

Reproach and Retreat

The first big Republican victory — the repeal and replace of the ACA — has morphed into reproach and retreat.  The net impact: what does this failure portend for the rest of the Trump agenda and, thus, the Trump Rally? Regular readers know that I’ve looked askance at this rally from the start [see: Why the “Trump … continue reading →

Happy Birthday to Us!

Pebblewriter was officially born on May 2, 2011, but we started tracking performance and offering subscriptions on the new site on March 23, 2012. Two thousand posts and 2.8 million page views later, we’re coming up on our 5th birthday. Since we haven’t run any membership promotions in months, it’s time to do something special! … continue reading →