About pebblewriter

I left Wall Street in August 2001 (95th floor of World Trade 2...timing IS everything) and continue to trade for fun and profit. I hold undergrad degrees in Math and Econ, an MBA and am a CFA. Which is all to say -- I have no excuse for the miserable mistakes I often make. This blog serves as a means to keep myself honest and my thoughts organized. It should not be construed as advice regarding any particular strategy or security.

The Chartist’s Dilemma

As a chartist, you know something’s gone haywire when a major, long-term channel breaks down and it results in higher prices.  Yet, as every chartist knows, this phenomenon has been a hallmark of the financial markets for the past several years.The S&P futures (ES) offer a very clear example.  Like all channels, the rising purple … continue reading →

FOMC Day: Dec 13, 2017

It’s that time again — when the FOMC does its level best to convince investors algos that they should be optimistic buy more equities.  Lately, this has meant a not so subtle message that rates are normalizing rising ever so slightly, inflation remains under control disappointing and the future looks strong good enough. We touched … continue reading →

PPI Tops 3%

Producer prices for final demand shot up 3.1% YoY in November, up from 2.8% in October and well above consensus at 2.9%.  It’s the highest rate of change since Jan 2012. The primary culprit: gasoline prices, which BLS officials say increased 15.8%.  Imagine what PPI would have registered if they’d used EIA-fabricated data (+17.4%) or … continue reading →