About pebblewriter

I left Wall Street in August 2001 (95th floor of World Trade 2...timing IS everything) and continue to trade for fun and profit. I hold undergrad degrees in Math and Econ, an MBA and am a CFA. Which is all to say -- I have no excuse for the miserable mistakes I often make. This blog serves as a means to keep myself honest and my thoughts organized. It should not be construed as advice regarding any particular strategy or security.

The Deathly Hallows

In Harry Potter, these are the three magical objects which make their owner a master of death. Tonight, we’ll look at three technical indicators that, while they may not grant immortality, will hopefully guide us safely through a dangerous market. (1)  Our harmonics patterns are working out exactly as expected.  As we forecast in Patterns, … continue reading →

Intra-day: July 11, 2011

ORIGINAL POST:  8:35AM PDT Watching the bearish Bat Pattern unfold, with Fib targets based on the DA measurement: .618   — 1295 1.272 — 1231 1.618 — 1197                                           Bearish Bat Pattern And, for those who have been following my 2011 = 2007 posts, today is putting in a bid as a candidate … continue reading →

She’s Come Undone

While backtesting the trend line from the Mar ’09 lows, the market did a little throw-over last week — exceeding the resistance by 14 points on Thursday, but giving it all back on Friday.  As we discussed in Confidence Fairies and Snowballs, this throw-over was a function of the government’s attempt to intervene in the … continue reading →

Then and Now

Anyone considering jumping on the bullish bandwagon should look carefully at the charts below. I’ve drawn in 2-standard deviation regression channels.  You might notice that the only key difference between the 2007 and the 2011 charts is that in 2007, the final push rises to the midline, or zero channel.  At today’s top, and I … continue reading →

Heard the Good News?

According to the Washington Post, Obama has thrown the sick and the elderly under the balance-the-frickin-budget bus.  At least, that’s how some will paint it.  Others will assert that Boehner has abandoned his peeps (the rich) in order to reach an unacceptable compromise. As always, reality is somewhere in the middle (and it’s far from … continue reading →

Crabs on an Overbought Tin Roof

Today’s action was a mix of misdirection that would make Hitchcock proud.  We were down 10 points early, locked in a channel aimed squarely at 1300.  But, we quickly rebounded and the channel morphed into a descending broadening pattern.  Then, that pattern started tracing out a little inverse head and shoulders pattern that promised a … continue reading →

Intra-day: July 6, 2011

ORIGINAL ENTRY: A nice entry point here at the top of the channel that’s carving out on the 5 minute chart.  At 1339 now, I believe we’ll close below 1330. UPDATE:  10:35 AM PDT With the move up to 1340, the channel morphed into a descending broadening formation, which can break out in either direction. … continue reading →