About pebblewriter

I left Wall Street in August 2001 (95th floor of World Trade 2...timing IS everything) and continue to trade for fun and profit. I hold undergrad degrees in Math and Econ, an MBA and am a CFA. Which is all to say -- I have no excuse for the miserable mistakes I often make. This blog serves as a means to keep myself honest and my thoughts organized. It should not be construed as advice regarding any particular strategy or security.

Channel Surfing

Just a quick update on yesterday’s post [Deja Vu].  Today was b’tugly from the get go, with the SPX down below 1270 at its worst.  Despite all that, the channel remains intact. Not content to see that something works without understanding how, I went back to the 2000 and 2007 tops.  Made a fascinating discovery.  … continue reading →

Deja Vu?

I’ve been looking at the tops in 2000 and 2007, trying to draw comparisons.  There are similarities in the way the market, once it drops below its long-term support (bottom of a rising wedge), looks like it’s in for a free fall. The 2000, 2007 and 2011 TopsWeekly But, it eventually finds new support in … continue reading →

Watch for the Rebound

NOTE: The following post has been updated with a new and expanded table of data.  Please see the 6/8/11 update for additional details and analysis. First, the ointment… As discussed many times already, we took out the important 1294 level on SPX — establishing a significant new lower low at 1284.72.  Significant damage has been … continue reading →

Here We Go

With this morning’s announcement acknowledgment of a dismal jobs picture, the market has cracked badly.  Even the cheerleaders will now publicly admit that the economy is mired in a double dip.  But, the realists will point to a more ominous outcome. To figure out what lies ahead, I spent some time looking back.  When the … continue reading →

I’d Rather be Lucky…

Yeah, it’s appropriate here. At 11:00 am yesterday [Shoulda, Coulda, Woulda], in a shameless attempt to save face after my first gutless post of the day, I stated: We’re taking a breather, as expected.  Interesting that the pullback occurred right at a trendline (the dashed line below) drawn off the 3/16 and 4/18 lows.  We … continue reading →

Stay Groovy

“It was an expression used by small recon units and sniper teams in hostile terrain in Vietnam. They would tell one another to stay groovy when the danger level was so insanely high they popped amphetamines to stay awake and ready to rock twenty-four/ seven, because anything less would get them all killed. Stay groovy; … continue reading →