About pebblewriter

I left Wall Street in August 2001 (95th floor of World Trade 2...timing IS everything) and continue to trade for fun and profit. I hold undergrad degrees in Math and Econ, an MBA and am a CFA. Which is all to say -- I have no excuse for the miserable mistakes I often make. This blog serves as a means to keep myself honest and my thoughts organized. It should not be construed as advice regarding any particular strategy or security.

The Waiting Game

Friday’s action brought us closer to the apex on the SPX bullish falling wedge (60 minute chart).  In addition, there is divergence in the histogram, the stochastic and the RSI vis-a-vis the index. VIX broke out of its bearish falling wedge at the end of the day.  The technical indicators are flashing negative — positive … continue reading →

A friend just tipped me to the fact that Elliott Wave International pronounced yesterday that 2011 and 2007 exhibit a “similar topping pattern.” OH!  MY!  GOSH! I only wish I had had this very valuable information when I posted back on May 31.  Oh, wait, I did.  When I made the exact same observation.  But … continue reading →

Dangerous Waters

UPDATE:  9:30 AM PDT Despite generally better than expected economic and earnings news this morning, we formed most of a Head and Shoulders pattern in the futures prior to the cash market opening.  I decided to wait and see how it played out before scaling back my shorts.  We have since completed it, and a … continue reading →

Which Way the Dollar?

I’ve been watching the dollar’s patterns for months, and yesterday we broke out of a falling wedge that’s been in the works for ages. We’ve made many attempts before, but back in late April we started forming a rising channel that’s been guiding us directly to this spot. With the weakness in the Euro and … continue reading →