About pebblewriter

I left Wall Street in August 2001 (95th floor of World Trade 2...timing IS everything) and continue to trade for fun and profit. I hold undergrad degrees in Math and Econ, an MBA and am a CFA. Which is all to say -- I have no excuse for the miserable mistakes I often make. This blog serves as a means to keep myself honest and my thoughts organized. It should not be construed as advice regarding any particular strategy or security.

P[3]?

The market’s off 16.60 at 1341.05.  I think this is the “Y” from Daneric’s W-X-Y count and a result of the bearish Gartley pattern we saw conclude yesterday. http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2011/05/elliott-wave-update-10-may-2011.html While SPX could easily continue down, I’d be watching for a bounce at: (a) 1333 — the long term trendline from the Oct ’07 high (stopped … continue reading →

Quick Silver Update

Watching SLV this morning. It’s turning on the fib levels religiously, topping within a nickel of the .382, toying with .236 and heading south now. I’m watching the 5-minute bars and, FWIW, a pattern has repeated three times in a row: every little dip is followed by exactly 9 sideways/up candles before the decline resumes. … continue reading →

GM Fumbles in the Red Zone

It was supposed to be a great turnaround story, a good cause and a profitable investment, too.  After going public again post taxpayer bailout, GM dropped like a rock despite research report puffery that would have Shakespeare drooling with envy http://in.mobile.reuters.com/article/rbssConsumerGoodsAndRetailNews/idINN1824469820110419?irpc=984 … continue reading →

Update on Silver

This bounce is lasting longer than I anticipated.  SLV experienced extraordinary volume trading during its decline:  988MM shares over 4 days, a big number as there are only 335MM outstanding. Given that the ETF is now owned by a whole new crowd (or repurchased by those who sold last week), we can expect the new … continue reading →

Silver ready to shine?

I suspect this morning’s bounce is all about (1) jumping on stocks’ coattails, and (2) this support line: What hasn’t changed is: (1) there’s another margin hike coming Monday, (2) plenty of folks are still figuring out how to meet yesterday’s margin calls, and (3) JPM probably hasn’t zeroed out their short position yet, and … continue reading →

They bought it!

As I suspected, incredibly impressive employment numbers reported this morning! We can all go back to buying stocks, knowing that the economy is back on track….except for the 22% of Americans who are unemployed or underemployed (the way the BLS reported statistics up until 1994 when we decided that those unemployed longer than a year … continue reading →