About pebblewriter

I left Wall Street in August 2001 (95th floor of World Trade 2...timing IS everything) and continue to trade for fun and profit. I hold undergrad degrees in Math and Econ, an MBA and am a CFA. Which is all to say -- I have no excuse for the miserable mistakes I often make. This blog serves as a means to keep myself honest and my thoughts organized. It should not be construed as advice regarding any particular strategy or security.

The Trouble With Meltups

The trouble with low-volume meltups driven entirely by algos is that they lack a strong foundation.  So, troubling economic, political or military news often unwind them — after hours, of course.  Such was the case with yesterday’s melt-up. There’s no shortage of bad news this morning: a new UK election, horrid factory output, oil’s production cut in … continue reading →

Trump Falls in Line

Trump, who rode to the White House on promises to fix healthcare, avoid foreign wars, embrace Russia, dis NATO, label China a currency manipulator, rebuild infrastructure, slash taxes and upend the Federal Reserve is well on his way to reverting to the same stance as nearly every other mainstream politician in recent memory. Yesterday, he declared that … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Apr 12, 2017

As we noted yesterday, SPX is hanging on by the skin of its teeth to a breakout.  Despite an 18-pt intraday plunge, it recovered by the end of the session thanks to a timely decline in VIX and rally in WTI.  Will it be enough to keep the trend intact? continued for members… … continue reading →

This is a Test

Yesterday, we got a taste of what happens to United Airlines passengers who are “disruptive and belligerent.”   In what is being described as one of the biggest PR fails in recent memory, United CEO Oscar Munoz defended the action taken to forcefully drag an Asian-American doctor from a flight that United had overbooked. No … continue reading →