About pebblewriter

I left Wall Street in August 2001 (95th floor of World Trade 2...timing IS everything) and continue to trade for fun and profit. I hold undergrad degrees in Math and Econ, an MBA and am a CFA. Which is all to say -- I have no excuse for the miserable mistakes I often make. This blog serves as a means to keep myself honest and my thoughts organized. It should not be construed as advice regarding any particular strategy or security.

Happy New Year!

And, in recognition of the various nationalities who’ve checked in here lately… Bonne année,  Sun nien fai lok,  xin nian kuai le,  gelukkig nieuwjaar, šťastný nový rok, yeni yılınız kutlu olsun, glückliches neues Jahr,  Szczesliwego Nowego Roku,  Stastny Novy Rok,  un an nou fericit,    Felice Anno Nuovo, Feliz año nuevo, С Новым Годом,  nav … continue reading →

Intra-day: July 26, 2011

UPDATE:  11:25 AM PDT The market’s making it’s daily recovery attempt.  The past two days, we’ve seen an 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of the previous day’s high.  While the rally could run out of gas sooner, today’s 88.6% level is 1342.16.  It would also mark the completion of a bearish crab pattern. UPDATE:  9:50 AM PDT … continue reading →

The Empire Has No Clothes

I’m going to continue to track the relationship between equities and the dollar.  As discussed in several of our latest posts, there’s a real possibility that the normally inverse relationship will be positively correlated in at least the near-term.  In other words, everything tanks. While the dollar has plenty of “issues,”  I expect that a … continue reading →

S&P Lowers GDP Growth Estimate

Highlights: 2Q  lowered from 4% to 1.7%. 2011 lowered from 3.1% to 2.4% Additional 2Q forecasts:          July      March Unemployment                        9.1%      8.9% Consumer spending                  .60         2.9 Equip. Investment                    4.7        17.2 Resid. Construction                  3.8         12 Fed Government               … continue reading →