About pebblewriter

I left Wall Street in August 2001 (95th floor of World Trade 2...timing IS everything) and continue to trade for fun and profit. I hold undergrad degrees in Math and Econ, an MBA and am a CFA. Which is all to say -- I have no excuse for the miserable mistakes I often make. This blog serves as a means to keep myself honest and my thoughts organized. It should not be construed as advice regarding any particular strategy or security.

Silver ready to shine?

I suspect this morning’s bounce is all about (1) jumping on stocks’ coattails, and (2) this support line: What hasn’t changed is: (1) there’s another margin hike coming Monday, (2) plenty of folks are still figuring out how to meet yesterday’s margin calls, and (3) JPM probably hasn’t zeroed out their short position yet, and … continue reading →

They bought it!

As I suspected, incredibly impressive employment numbers reported this morning! We can all go back to buying stocks, knowing that the economy is back on track….except for the 22% of Americans who are unemployed or underemployed (the way the BLS reported statistics up until 1994 when we decided that those unemployed longer than a year … continue reading →

Short the Banks

The Deutsche Bank suit could have a huge impact on the financials — a new front in the mortgage wars. Deutsche surely isn’t the only bank guilty of “reckless lending” and hoisting bad loans on the government. I’m looking to play the downside on BAC, C and WFC, especially after this morning’s run up. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/deutsche-bank-hit-with-us-mortgage-fraud-suit-2011-05-03 … continue reading →

Decision Time for Market

Yesterday’s OBL rally was impressively thwarted, leaving us with a bearish candle and a possible top — albeit several points short of the overhead resistance mentioned in the last post.  As expected, we broke down from the smaller of our two rising wedges.  The larger wedge remains. One more push higher would make for a … continue reading →

Collision Looming?

These charts indicate a collision looming between: (1) the long-term wedge started March of 2009,(2) a more recent rising wedge starting April 15,(3) the long-term resistance line dating back to the early 1990’s, and,(4) the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the March ’09 lows. Note, both wedges are very long in the tooth, meaning they’re just … continue reading →

charts for May 2, 2011

A very long term support line comes into play as resistance.  About to intersect with the rising wedge from March ’09 (daily) and the rising wedge from this past April 15 (hourly.)  Then, there’s the .786 retracement off the March ’09 lows coming up at 1381.50. 50-100 (or more) point corrections every 3 months, give … continue reading →