About pebblewriter

I left Wall Street in August 2001 (95th floor of World Trade 2...timing IS everything) and continue to trade for fun and profit. I hold undergrad degrees in Math and Econ, an MBA and am a CFA. Which is all to say -- I have no excuse for the miserable mistakes I often make. This blog serves as a means to keep myself honest and my thoughts organized. It should not be construed as advice regarding any particular strategy or security.

You Say Potato…

Tuesday’s declines had an impact on the harmonic picture, but not exactly how I expected. The large bullish Gartley that has been forming since 4/18 was completed at the lows (* on the chart).  The smaller 5/17 – 5/22 bullish Gartley targeting 1352 failed due to the extension of the CD leg; but, thanks to … continue reading →

Skating on Thin Ice

Putting together the harmonics with important support and resistance levels, I’m looking for the Apr 20 gap to be filled, then a strong rebound, reaching the 1350 area in the next few days.  I still have a target of 1380 as the end of P[2], but am looking at the possibility of a truncated fifth … continue reading →

Does OPEX Matter?

This past Friday morning, with SPX down about 9 1/2, I made a crazy call based on some indicators I’ve been watching [more later tonight or tomorrow.]  They said the market would not only stop falling, but would completely reverse itself and open up, leaving a nice bullish hammer going into the weekend and thus, … continue reading →

So Far So Good…

Quick update before the open… VIX call per the bearish Gartley was dead on.  VIX fell another 8% since the call, closing at 16.23  — down from 19.09.  The hourly charts confirm a continued fall over the near term.  My original target of 15.10 looking safe for the moment.  Very bullish for a continued rally … continue reading →

Are We There Yet?

While it would be easy to jump on the P[3] bandwagon right about now (and it wouldn’t take much convincing) a note of caution is in order. A pullback that stalls in the low 1320’s on SPX would leave a pretty well-formed bullish Gartley Pattern (Point B should be 4 points lower, allowing a fuller … continue reading →