About pebblewriter

I left Wall Street in August 2001 (95th floor of World Trade 2...timing IS everything) and continue to trade for fun and profit. I hold undergrad degrees in Math and Econ, an MBA and am a CFA. Which is all to say -- I have no excuse for the miserable mistakes I often make. This blog serves as a means to keep myself honest and my thoughts organized. It should not be construed as advice regarding any particular strategy or security.

As the Wörm Turns

You can’t make this stuff up. Seriously, it’s got all the elements of a Hollywood drama.    From today’s WSJ: Jürgen Stark, chief economist (and chief hawk) of the ECB, just quit over the ECB’s decision to ramp up their version of QE.  It leaves three Italians on the governing council versus only one German. That’s … continue reading →

H&S Alert

Bears have been amply rewarded by the large H&S; pattern that completed in early August.  The new ones now shaping up will make that one look puny by comparison. Pure speculation, but if the H&S; and Butterfly patterns play out on the daily chart [The Big Picture] we would complete a larger H&S; pattern.  The … continue reading →

The Big Picture

I took the day off from tree-watching to develop a better view of the forest.  Here’s what I came up with. First, recall that harmonic patterns are what brought us to this point in time.  They occur on a regular basis, and are believed to play out successfully about 70% of the time.  Here’s one … continue reading →

Intra-day: August 31, 2011

UPDATE:  1:00 PM I’ve seen some huge manipulations of economic data before, but the July factory orders numbers from Census take the cake. Total for all manufactures goods fell almost 7.5%, from $472B to $437B.  This is huge news.   So, why wasn’t that the headline, instead of… Because, through the magical seasonal adjustment process, … continue reading →