About pebblewriter

I left Wall Street in August 2001 (95th floor of World Trade 2...timing IS everything) and continue to trade for fun and profit. I hold undergrad degrees in Math and Econ, an MBA and am a CFA. Which is all to say -- I have no excuse for the miserable mistakes I often make. This blog serves as a means to keep myself honest and my thoughts organized. It should not be construed as advice regarding any particular strategy or security.

2011 v 2008: Day 125

UPDATE:  4:00 PM Heading off for the weekend and probably won’t get to post.  One last thought… in looking at the rising wedge we’re in, the apex seems to be around 1340-1350.  Wedges can and do expand (as this one has, many times).  But, breakouts typically occur around the .66 mark, which in this case … continue reading →

Housing: More of the Same

Again, ignore the headlines.  The numbers that really matters are ytd sales (without a seasonal adjustment) and median sales price.  Here, without the glitzy graphics or Census Dept spin, is the unvarnished truth.                                      US      Northeast   Midwest    South     West 2011 v 2010 ytd         -7.9%      -29.7%       -9.7%      -4.1%     -6.1%percent change inunits sold Median price: … continue reading →

Topping Pattern?

UPDATE:  3:45 PM Despite all the drama, EUR still looking like the bottom’s about to fall out.  All the players are hedging, talking about needing a few more days past Sunday (the most recent deadline for the miracle cure.) Note the RSI trendline, still within the channel we’ve been watching.  And, of course, we’re up … continue reading →