About pebblewriter

I left Wall Street in August 2001 (95th floor of World Trade 2...timing IS everything) and continue to trade for fun and profit. I hold undergrad degrees in Math and Econ, an MBA and am a CFA. Which is all to say -- I have no excuse for the miserable mistakes I often make. This blog serves as a means to keep myself honest and my thoughts organized. It should not be construed as advice regarding any particular strategy or security.

Here We Go

With this morning’s announcement acknowledgment of a dismal jobs picture, the market has cracked badly.  Even the cheerleaders will now publicly admit that the economy is mired in a double dip.  But, the realists will point to a more ominous outcome. To figure out what lies ahead, I spent some time looking back.  When the … continue reading →

I’d Rather be Lucky…

Yeah, it’s appropriate here. At 11:00 am yesterday [Shoulda, Coulda, Woulda], in a shameless attempt to save face after my first gutless post of the day, I stated: We’re taking a breather, as expected.  Interesting that the pullback occurred right at a trendline (the dashed line below) drawn off the 3/16 and 4/18 lows.  We … continue reading →

Stay Groovy

“It was an expression used by small recon units and sniper teams in hostile terrain in Vietnam. They would tell one another to stay groovy when the danger level was so insanely high they popped amphetamines to stay awake and ready to rock twenty-four/ seven, because anything less would get them all killed. Stay groovy; … continue reading →

3 Peaks & Domed House

Are we going from point 26 at 1311 to point 27 at 1358, before heading down to 28.  27 should be near top of 15, right edge of 1sst story roof.  28 bottoms near point 10.  27-28 decline should be equiv to 14-15.  rise from 20-21 balances 25-26 decline. see Carl Futia’s blog:  http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2011/05/guesstimates-on-may-6-2011.htmland: http://thepatternsite.com/3peaksdome.html … continue reading →

Shoulda, Coulda, Woulda…

As the harmonics suggested last Tuesday, we broke out of the channel and are up 12 points this morning.  But, we need a breather after this morning’s skinning of the bears.  Short term, the market’s technically overbought. We will need to digest a bit of the rise, pausing to retrace probably somewhere between the .618 … continue reading →


        Michael J. Novosel was only 19 when Pearl Harbor was attacked. Determined to fly for the Army Air Corps, he was too short to pass the flight medical. His friends carried him around on a stretcher for several days in the mistaken belief that he might grow a little if spared the effects of … continue reading →

Credit Default Swaps Hint at the Next Casualty

Short term US Government credit default swaps have more than tripled since April.  If this were solely the result of debt ceiling debate, I wouldn’t be so worried. http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/05/25/us-short-term-cds-spreads-sharply-wider/ I suspect it has more to do with the fact that US debt is forecast to exceed 155% of GDP by 2035 (see the report from … continue reading →

Who’ll Stop the Reign?

“BOSTON (MarketWatch) — It‘s cost $600 billion of your money. And it was supposed to rescue the economy. But has Ben Bernanke’s huge financial stimulus package, known as “Quantitative Easing 2,” actually worked as planned? … Turns out the program has created maybe 700,000 full-time jobs — at a cost of around $850,000 each.  House … continue reading →