About pebblewriter

I left Wall Street in August 2001 (95th floor of World Trade 2...timing IS everything) and continue to trade for fun and profit. I hold undergrad degrees in Math and Econ, an MBA and am a CFA. Which is all to say -- I have no excuse for the miserable mistakes I often make. This blog serves as a means to keep myself honest and my thoughts organized. It should not be construed as advice regarding any particular strategy or security.

Intra-day: August 1, 2011

UPDATE:  3:00 PM EDT In coming back to the -2 std deviation line of our regression channel at today’s low of 1274.73, we’ve finally completed one of the H&S; patterns I’ve been following.  This one has a sloping neckline (blue, dotted), and is the 2nd cousin to the one everyone’s been watching.  Here’s a peek: … continue reading →

Just made an interesting discovery, that led to an even more interesting discovery. I’ve been watching the VIX calls, and in fact am very happily invested in the August 25’s at .50.  Last night, someone pointed out that the in the money calls were trading below intrinsic value.  A few minutes ago, with the index … continue reading →

Do You Feel Lucky?

Two days ago [Intra-day July 26] I wrote about an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern developing in VIX.  I thought it would take us to 21.66, which it did — hitting 23.99 today. I know what you’re thinking.  Was that the only H&S; worth watching?  Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement … continue reading →

Intra-day: July 27, 2011

UPDATE:  1:00 PM PDT Here’s the dollar vs stocks graph we’ve been watching.  As we discussed, the dollar seems to have found its footing, while capitulation has officially arrived in the stock market. 1 Minute 60 Minute UPDATE:  12:00 PM PDT Forgot to mention the Head and Shoulders patterns we discussed yesterday.  VIX hit 22.53, … continue reading →