About pebblewriter

I left Wall Street in August 2001 (95th floor of World Trade 2...timing IS everything) and continue to trade for fun and profit. I hold undergrad degrees in Math and Econ, an MBA and am a CFA. Which is all to say -- I have no excuse for the miserable mistakes I often make. This blog serves as a means to keep myself honest and my thoughts organized. It should not be construed as advice regarding any particular strategy or security.

Crabs on an Overbought Tin Roof

Today’s action was a mix of misdirection that would make Hitchcock proud.  We were down 10 points early, locked in a channel aimed squarely at 1300.  But, we quickly rebounded and the channel morphed into a descending broadening pattern.  Then, that pattern started tracing out a little inverse head and shoulders pattern that promised a … continue reading →

Intra-day: July 6, 2011

ORIGINAL ENTRY: A nice entry point here at the top of the channel that’s carving out on the 5 minute chart.  At 1339 now, I believe we’ll close below 1330. UPDATE:  10:35 AM PDT With the move up to 1340, the channel morphed into a descending broadening formation, which can break out in either direction. … continue reading →

We’ve Got Crabs

Back on June 27th, with SPX at1279, I suggested an upside target of 1322 [Patterns, Patterns and More Patterns.]  At that price, I noted, we would have completed a bearish Crab Pattern at the 3.14 extension of the BC leg. At the recent high of 1341, we’ve completed a nearly perfectly formed Crab Pattern at … continue reading →

Be Careful What You Wish For

With all the (justifiable) recriminations aimed at rating agencies post the last crash, it’s more than a little ironic that they’re now being criticized for doing what we asked of them —  telling the truth. In the past 24 hours, two huge bombshells.  First, Greece is no longer “fixed.”  According to S&P;, the restructuring, even … continue reading →

Final Destination

Friday’s close at just shy of 1340 was purely a function of the way we got there and does not represent a breakdown of the similarities with 2007’s top.  There.  Got that out of my system. Am I as confident as that makes me sound?  Ask me after Tuesday’s close.  I’ve spent considerable time this … continue reading →

Descending broadening wedge on VIX hourly.  rising wedge on SPX hourly???  negative divergence rsi vs histogram.  Inverse etf, falling wedge. Gartley on SPX daily?  neg diverge on rut/comp/nasdaq.  hitting 50 sma all over the place. overbought.  Right shoulders building all over the place.  vix lower BB.

Mission Impossible

UPDATE:  11:00 PM PDT Not much to add.  Just looking at chart patterns… and see what looks like: There’a a bearish Bat pattern setting up on XLF in another .10 or so; VIX horizontal support at current prices, a falling wedge and descending broadening wedge on VIX hourly, bumping the -2 bollinger band on VIX, … continue reading →

Mission Impossible

What seemed laughable two weeks ago actually happened today, as SPX reached 1321.97 intraday — 3 cents shy of our 1322 target drawn back on June 16 by studying trend lines.  In so doing, it is within spitting distance of its IHS target as well as completing bearish Bat and Crab patterns.  It reached our … continue reading →