About pebblewriter

I left Wall Street in August 2001 (95th floor of World Trade 2...timing IS everything) and continue to trade for fun and profit. I hold undergrad degrees in Math and Econ, an MBA and am a CFA. Which is all to say -- I have no excuse for the miserable mistakes I often make. This blog serves as a means to keep myself honest and my thoughts organized. It should not be construed as advice regarding any particular strategy or security.

Is It Over?

It depends.  Do you feel safe with a faltering ramp in WTI and slump in VIX holding back the selling pressure generated by a falling dollar complex? SPX made a nice recovery yesterday, setting up some potentially bullish patterns but failing to follow through on them.  Some of those patterns have been under assault overnight, … continue reading →

It’s War!

Back on April 25, I posted “How Broken is the Market?” and included the following VIX graphs.  The first showed a long-term channel (below, in yellow) the bottom of which was occasionally tagged in times of extreme complacency.  Each instance was followed by a correction.I contrasted it with a chart of the same channel which, … continue reading →