As of August 31, we’re up 54.64% since inception (March 22, a little over 5 months.) A competing “buy and hold” portfolio would have earned about 1%.
- Inception to date: +54.64%
- S&P 500: +0.99%
- Differential: +53.65%
August was going so well until the 7th. That marked the first of 20 sessions in a row that traded within 5 points of the fan line from the top in 2007. Directional trading became very difficult, as every breakout or breakdown fizzled before it could get rolling — a situation that will likely continue until the central banks’ intentions become clearer.
So, I’ve resorted to short-term trading — playing the daily swings (aka scalping) for a few points here and there and going to cash much more often. Since Aug 21, results have been much more positive: we managed to salvage a 5.39% month versus 1.23% for the S&P 500.
The downside of such a strategy is that we might miss part of extended breakouts or breakdowns. It’s also much more labor intensive — resulting in many more trades than normal (sometimes several in one day.) I think it’s a risk worth taking — at least until after Sept 13th when the FOMC concludes its next meeting and QE questions are (hopefully!) answered. Then, I plan to go back to directional trading before all my hair is as white as my knuckles.
Two months into Q3, we’re at 15.68% so far versus 3.19% for the S&P 500. Q2 came in at 37.74% — which would have ranked us #1 among managers if we were an equity mutual fund or (according to these guys) a hedge fund. Monthly results are as follows:
|Mar (from 3/22)||.50||.37|
as of August 31, 2012
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