Are You Happy?

If you sailed into today’s session brimming with bullish optimism over the 20-pt gains in the futures, you probably didn’t have such a great day.

If, on the other hand, you came in with your eyes wide open, having just read our opening post, you’re no doubt grinning from ear to ear.

While a big CL and USDJPY inspired after-hours ramp job gives the impression that the danger is past, it’s not… we could see a replay — a pop and drop.  SPX would reach the purple channel bottom at around 1948ish — a 10-pt gain from yesterday’s close.

We put on a short at 1948 (the high was 1950.33) at which point, we began setting downside targets including 1940, 1925, 1900 and, finally, our ultimate target of 1887.71, originally posted Monday in The Century in Review:

I’ll call the target 1882-1887 for now, and it could happen as soon as tomorrow.

The forecast chart posted on Monday…2016-01-11 SPX daily 1500Here’s the same chart as of the close.  BTW, today’s low was 1886.41.

2016-01-13 SPX daily 1300

The key will obviously be the neckline of this huge Head & Shoudlers Pattern — about 1880.  If it’s breached — except for intraday — the bulls are in trouble.  If not, rest assured TPTB are still firmly in control.

We don’t nail our targets every day, but it’s been a lot easier since TPTB aren’t tampering with the “markets” quite as much as usual.  Dare we hope this is the new normal?

updated: Jan 15, 2016

updated: Jan 15, 2016

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Are You Happy? — 4 Comments

    • When we reach a target that represents very strong support, it becomes very binary – right? Either it gets propped up and we get a nice rebound, or there’s the plunge gets much worse. We saw the flip side when the Dec 2 rally couldn’t complete the IH&S that would have meant much higher prices.