Analog Watch: Apr 14, 2015

SPX reversed where we expected.  From yesterday’s member section:

Look for SPX to run into a brick wall at 2106.95 or so.  From there, it should be downhill.

The culprit, as anticipated when this analog first became apparent: USDJPY. [see: A New Analog Mar 27.]2015-04-14 USDJPY v ES 0617CL, however, continues to mitigate USDJPY’s effects.  Remember, the yen can weaken only as long as CL remains under control.

2015-04-14 CL v DX 60 0635Conversely, a strengthening yen will allow CL to rebound (and the dollar to weaken) — as long as the euro also strengthens — which it has since hitting the .886 we discussed yesterday.

2015-04-14 EURUSD v ES 0635

Our price targets for SPX remain in place, with the most likely timing either today or tomorrow.

continued for members


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