Analog Watch: Apr 13, 2015

It’s pretty interesting that today — one day before the expected cyclical low of our USDJPY-based analog — is the day that Abe’s close advisor Koichi Hamada chose to announce that the yen should increase in value to 105 to the dollar versus the current 120ish.  For more on Hamada’s views, check out THIS VIDEO.

The USDJPY’s reaction was swift and unambiguous — though, just as quickly, the pair popped right back to the yellow .618 at 120.11.  Is it just a backtest, or something more troubling for Abe and friends?

2015-04-13 USDJPY 0620The futures reacted mildly, but what if carry-traders should get the idea that Abe intends to end the free ride?  Would they meekly ride off into the sunset, or would they stand their ground?2015-04-13 ES daily 0620At the end of the day, who really controls the USDJPY?  This is a question the “market” will decide for us.  And, given that all of the currency pairs we chart are at important inflection points, it will be a very interesting next couple of days.

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