We didn’t have to wait long for the Bat pattern I posted at 11am to play out.
The .886 target was 1414.97, and we reversed at 1415.32 at 11:50am — closing just a fraction above the subsequent low for the day of 1405.25.
I was disappointed to be stopped out of my short position early this morning, but more than made up for it by establishing new shorts at 1415. I enjoy 60% intra-day profits as much as the next guy, but what’s really cool about the way the day closed is the effect on the RSI channel.
I posted yesterday about the RSI channel that was setting up on SPX. I added another post late last night (early this morning?) showing essentially the same pattern on all the other indices I watch. It strongly suggests that the rise since 1357 is nothing more than a back test. Here’s the view at yesterday’s close.
This morning’s elevator ride sent RSI right through that dashed, red line — making the channel look about as valid as a $3 bill. In fact, RSI spent most of the session ignoring my channel line. But thanks to the Bat pattern reversal, at the end of the day (literally) the channel held.
And — wouldn’t you know it — SPX closed right at the shoulder line (white, dashed line) where it can torment us with uncertainty for another day.
For a peek at the other indices and their channels, check out New Charts! posted last night. Also, each index has its own page under the MARKETS menu, and will be updated at least weekly. SPX, DX and VIX are typically updated intra-day on the main page, depending on market conditions.
While you’re poking around, consider signing up. Current pebblewriter followers who join by midnight tomorrow are entitled to $100 off an annual membership. Also, the first 100 annual members who sign up by tomorrow will have their membership rate grandfathered for the life of the site. No increases, ever — which will be pretty cool when it costs $500 just to fill up your Suburban.
Over the next day or two, this website will be password protected, so those of you who have already subscribed (thanks!) will enjoy first dibs on the latest and greatest. If you haven’t subscribed yet, might as well do it now and save yourself $100. If you bought a dozen at-the-money puts at 1415 today, you’re already up more than the cost of an annual membership.
Good luck to all.