A New Day


Final 48 Hours

There’s something deeply satisfying about being short when the buy and hold crowd is freaking out over the massive (their word, not mine) 5% Brexit drop in the S&P 500. And, that’s what pebblewriter.com is all about — catching most of the moves most of the time, regardless of which way it’s going.

Ordinarily I wait until the actual end of the month to start any kind of membership sale. But, we’ve had a pretty good month so far [CLICK HERE]; and, I have the feeling there are a lot of folks out there who are truly confused about what’s going on.

Be confused no more. Sign up for an Annual Membership at over half-off the first year or, even better, a Charter Annual Membership where your rate is guaranteed to never increase for the life of the site.  Don’t delay, as this promotion ends on July 2.

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Were you frustrated a few times last month?  If you’re anything like me, you found the degree of market manipulation downright stunning.  But, we were presented with some great opportunities — from the 5% Brexit correction to Wednesday’s CL short, and several USDJPY shorts.

I’ll have last month’s results up this morning, but in the meantime, take a look at USDJPY.  As expected, the rising purple channel broke down last night.

Our bonus chart from 7:30pm last night…

2016-06-30 USDJPY 5 1629…and, the same chart this morning. 2016-07-01 USDJPY 5 0604We’ve talked many times about how USDJPY has been reduced to a tool for manipulating stocks (just yesterday, in fact.)  Consider NKD, which has been building a sharply rising channel all week since Brexit.  USDJPY needed to reset last night, ideally to flesh out the less steep white channel I expected to take form.

Note the tags on NKD’s channel bottom, labeled 1-3.  And, note the placement of the same labels in USDJPY.  Which was the tail and which was the dog?

2016-07-01 NKD 5 0617There are a number of charts which indicate SPX should take a breather, now that the month/quarter are over.  But, will it?  It’s been a hell of a ride since popping back up above the DO NOT CROSS channel top on Tuesday, its first of three gaps higher this week.

2016-07-01 SPX 5 0615I’ll be watching to see when USDJPY drops the rest of the way to 102.3 — a pretty sure thing.

CL, which is now off 4.2% since our top call on Wednesday, suggests we’d be safe shorting here — particularly if it doesn’t pop back above the purple channel midline. With the holiday weekend just ahead, it’d be pretty easy to undo whatever damage TPTB allow today.2016-07-01 CL 5 0625

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