Futures have been all over the map since yesterday’s close. SPX bounced slightly below the initial downside target from our analog first mapped out on July 15 and confirmed on July 30 [see: Ringing the Bell] — but, well ahead of schedule thanks to Trump’s latest China trade salvo.
The 3% drop from the top is nice. But, the great thing about analogs is that they offer a predictable path through the otherwise indecipherable and often illogical twists and turns. Since the top came early, it’s possible that everything else will come early.
I’ll be working on adjusting the timeline today. In the meantime, CL and RB bounced where expected, VIX reversed where expected, SPX and ES should test their SMA50s today and the 10Y is making a beeline for our downside targets.
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