A Break or a Breakdown?

The 10Y yield has clearly broken trend as expected, with a couple of Fib tests the only things standing between it and our downside targets.  Our 28.56 upside target from Jan 10 [see: China – It’s Not Me, It’s You] has officially yielded. This is what stocks were waiting for — a sign that interest rates’ climb past 3% wasn’t as certain as most analysts suggested.  ES broke out of its slump and pressed on to new highs, finally joining SPX in regaining its 2.24 Fib extension.

This leaves our analog on track with our next targets easily in reach.  It also confirms the time adjustment that was suggested by the most recent dip and the redrawing of VIX’s (and everything else’s) path for the next six weeks.

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