Update on COMP: Dec 7, 2018

Don’t look now, but COMP is approaching our 6760 target.  As we discussed on Oct 10 [see: Plan B] COMP faced significant downside if its 200-DMA didn’t hold. Bottom line, it didn’t.  It was off as much as 13.3% last month before beginning a bounce that was destined to fail.  Next week, it will get … continue reading →

The Yield Curve’s Warning

NOTE:  The Dec 6 post is combined with this one from yesterday.  All targets remain unchanged from last week.  *  *  * Technical analysis encompasses a wide array of indicators — sentiment, flow, volume, open interest, moving averages, momentum, chart patterns and Fibonacci patterns.  Many fundamental analysts disparage the practice, but begrudgingly dabble when a … continue reading →

The Latest Tipping Point

Yesterday’s targets are still intact with the exception of USDJPY, which broke down in order to accommodate SPX’s SMA200 backtest.If this is a garden variety backtest, the bears have nothing to get excited about other than a nice 50-pt short trade.  Note that the last time USDJPY broke down, however, it turned into a 190-pt … continue reading →

You Break It…You Buy It

Suppose a neighborhood kid was seen deliberately throwing a brick through an expensive plate glass window in your home. Following a serious discussion with and full reimbursement from the kid’s parents, things might eventually get back to normal. If the parents are thinking straight, the little runt might even be responsible for working off the … continue reading →

Powell Joins the Club

Unless he publicly walks back yesterday’s widely misquoted comments, Powell has officially joined the club of Fed chairmen with unquestioned allegiance to a rising market.  The actual quote: “Interest rates are still low by historical standards, and they remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the … continue reading →

Another Moment of Truth

Continuing yesterday’s theme of Mixed Messages, futures have been all over the map since yesterday’s close – sinking as low as 2626 on more tariff troubles and soaring up to 2684.50 (and, coincidentally, the SMA10) on tariff hopes. Virtually all of our targets remain the same, though clearly we face substantial headline risk for the … continue reading →

Mixed Messages

A 30-pt bounce in futures over a long holiday weekend is nothing new.  But, when it happens in the midst of longer-term bearish patterns which have yet to fully play out, it delivers very mixed messages. Our yield curve model continues to point to lower stock prices, so we’ll regard this ramp as a likely … continue reading →