Things continue on track, though as we discussed yesterday VIX has jumped the gun — reaching our Mar 14 target today, three sessions early.ES is closing in on our next upside target (though it’ll need help jumping the channel midline at 2761.) And, SPX should have no trouble reaching today’s target at the purple channel … continue reading →
Yearly Archives: 2018
About a month ago, as part of the series of charts inspired by our latest analog [see: Analog Details Feb 7, 2018] I hazarded a forecast for RUT that called for a rebound to the rising white channel (which had recently broken down) by Feb 14, a retracement on Mar 1, and a subsequent rally … continue reading →
Cue the Looney Tunes music. Another day, another stick save. Had the 40-pt drop in futures that the Cohn news precipitated occurred when ES was already down 24 points, we probably would have seen 2662 tagged or even exceeded. As “luck” would have it, the news hit after the markets closed — which is to … continue reading →
Fourteen out of the last 22 sessions, the eminis have reversed at or passed through the 2.24 extension at 2728.79. There’s no question that it’s important. The question is whether stocks are ready to push on through or need to gather more momentum first. Our analog [see: Analog Watch, Feb 6] has been very accurate … continue reading →
While direction and price targets are going well, timing continues to be a bit of a challenge — primarily due to equities’ hypersensitivity to VIX. VIX reached our initial 25.65 target on Friday, at least a day early.SPX’s meltdown and recovery also came early, meaning today’s sell off could extend beyond what the futures currently … continue reading →
I’m taking the day off to catch up on charting. Please refer to yesterday’s post for current forecasts. … continue reading →
I called a top in SPX on May 20, 2015 [see: The Last Big Butterfly] because it was about to reach the 1.618 Fib extension at 2138 — our upside target from way back in 2012. SPX peaked the following day and fell over 300 points before it was all over. What I didn’t notice … continue reading →
Stocks were not thrilled with Powell’s somewhat hawkish testimony yesterday. Bottom line, he didn’t do much to inspire confidence that tightening would be limited to three rate hikes. The killer line came, however, when he admitted that the US is not on a sustainable fiscal path. It was, perhaps, the least surprising comment he might … continue reading →
I made French toast for my daughter this past weekend. Most people think I’m a pretty decent cook, especially with weekend staples like French toast, pancakes, etc. I left her to chow down while I went back to work — only to find this when I returned. The conversation went something like: Me: Didn’t you … continue reading →
The 10Y yield has clearly broken trend as expected, with a couple of Fib tests the only things standing between it and our downside targets. Our 28.56 upside target from Jan 10 [see: China – It’s Not Me, It’s You] has officially yielded. This is what stocks were waiting for — a sign that interest … continue reading →