Where’s Warren?

The biggest surprise from today’s meltdown?  No Warren. As in Buffett.  It seems like every time the market pulls a scary reversal as it did today, Warren makes an appearance on CNBC or Bloomberg or gives a hasty interview with the WSJ, Forbes, etc. He helps bring calm to the markets. Investors like him and … continue reading →

Doves Attack

Doves are harmless, right?  Suppressing interest rates and pumping markets full of cash for 10 years straight has obviously done wonders for stocks. What could go wrong? Nothing, unless you consider the markets’ addiction to easy money a problem.  The mere hint of the Fed normalizing rates and “allowing” a business cycle to play out … continue reading →

The Fork in the Road

An important test lies just ahead.  With SPX and ES having closed below their Head & Shoulders necklines on Friday, the inference is that the bottom just dropped out.  The real test will come, however, if COMP drops more than 1.6% to below 6801.75. This, our downside target since October 10 [see: Plan B] represents … continue reading →

Unscripted

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Stagflation: Euro Style

The graphic below, direct from the ECB, tells a fairly bleak story.  Rate hikes?  Don’t hold your breath.The EURUSD was virtually unmoved on Draghi’s press conference.  In other words, nothing he said surprised or even resonated with investors. It’s been a while since we devoted a post to the lowly euro, which has gone nowhere … continue reading →

Visualizing Whirled Peas

Last night, I attended a very enjoyable holiday get-together at which I was probably the only technical analyst among a hundred or so quants.  After solving the problems of nuclear proliferation and ensuring that the paintings in the room were perfectly level (who says finance guys don’t know how to party?) the discussion got down … continue reading →