Powell Joins the Club

Unless he publicly walks back yesterday’s widely misquoted comments, Powell has officially joined the club of Fed chairmen with unquestioned allegiance to a rising market.  The actual quote: “Interest rates are still low by historical standards, and they remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the … continue reading →

Another Moment of Truth

Continuing yesterday’s theme of Mixed Messages, futures have been all over the map since yesterday’s close – sinking as low as 2626 on more tariff troubles and soaring up to 2684.50 (and, coincidentally, the SMA10) on tariff hopes. Virtually all of our targets remain the same, though clearly we face substantial headline risk for the … continue reading →

Mixed Messages

A 30-pt bounce in futures over a long holiday weekend is nothing new.  But, when it happens in the midst of longer-term bearish patterns which have yet to fully play out, it delivers very mixed messages. Our yield curve model continues to point to lower stock prices, so we’ll regard this ramp as a likely … continue reading →

FAANGs: Now or Never

Interesting pause here at support.  If a model I’m watching plays out, next week could be ugly.  On the other hand…think of all the times we’ve seen a meltup during a low-volume holiday week. There are a few tells, as long as they’re not head-fakes.  We’ll start with USDJPY, which has done absolutely nothing to … continue reading →