FOMC: Two out of Three Ain’t Bad

It was a strange press conference.  As we discussed yesterday, stocks would react kindly…  …if Powell is successful in convincing investors algos that the economy is strong but there is no wage pressure and inflation poses no real threat. I think he succeeded in portraying the economy as strong.  This morning’s economic data helped bolster that narrative … continue reading →

FOMC: What Elephant?

Over the last 20 years, we’ve seen two yield curve (2s10s) inversions: essentially all of 2000 and Dec 2005-May 2007.  The inversions themselves posed no issues for equity markets.  It was the dramatic unwinding of those inversions that produced crashes.Eight months ago, we almost had another.  2s10s had fallen to a trend line connecting those … continue reading →

Fine Tuning

ES reached new highs yesterday, but SPX reversed at its .886 Fib retracement.  Which should we believe?  Since VIX is plunging in the minutes before the open, indications are that this morning’s selloff will be just enough for SPX to flesh out its latest rising channel — also on the way to new highs. What … continue reading →

The Devil’s Playground

Catch this news flash yesterday?  Trump, ironically at a White House meeting with the National Council for the American Worker: You’re gonna see on China, today, right after close of business…we’ll be announcing something, uh, and it will be a lot of money coming into the coffers of the United States of America, a lot … continue reading →