As expected, the BoJ took the path most beneficial to stocks — leaving rate targets where they’ve been (negative short-term rates, the 10Y at 0%) and mumbling something about being more flexible the future as they continue to strive for 2% inflation. The actual goal, of course, is to prop up stocks while they try … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: July 2018
The BoJ continues to battle what’s left of the market over the rate on benchmark 10Y bonds. Earlier today, it again stepped in to put a lid on rates at 0.10%. Some analysts assume Kuroda will take steps to normalize rates in order to relieve pressure on banks and create some headroom for future easing. … continue reading →
Q2 GDP came in slightly below consensus at 4.1%. The good news is that it’s a healthy number, certain to earn its way into headlines (and presidential tweets) from now until at least Nov 6. The bad news is that, thanks to the “good” and “easy to win” trade wars, at least 1% of the … continue reading →
Today should be very interesting. Will investors focus more on Facebook’s faceplant……or the nominal progress on trade issues? How about the disappointing Durable Orders? And, what about the ECB’s obfuscation? Could be some interesting cross-currents — made even more interesting by the fact that ES/SPX reached our upside target yesterday. continued for members… … continue reading →
$20 billion here, $20 billion there. Pretty soon you’re talking real money. Maybe Zuck should have accelerated his sales a bit more. Facebook’s disastrous conference call and outlook has seen the stock plummet 25% from its earlier highs.Note that this brings FB back below: (1) the trend line which has buoyed it since April 4; … continue reading →
VIX continued to play cat and mouse with its 10-day moving average, yesterday, leading to generally positive gains for stocks.Those gains have faded, however, and futures are slightly negative in the minutes leading up to the open. Dollar weakness continues to be a headwind… …and the yield curve continues to steepen.With SPX falling a few … continue reading →
Perhaps the Jackson 5 said it best… A-B-C, Easy as 1-2-3 Ah, simple as do-re-mi A-B-C, 1-2-3, Baby, you and me Alphabet is soaring in the after-market, but coming up on important Fib and TL resistance. Can anything stop this behemoth?As one of the 10 stocks which contributed over 100% of the S&P 500’s YTD … continue reading →
Lots of excitement in the currency markets this morning — particularly the yen. The USDJPY plunged rather decisively to our nearest downside target… …after stories appeared in the financial press that the BoJ was embarking on a buying spree, offering to buy “an unlimited amount of bonds.” Why would they do such a thing? Yields … continue reading →
It was going to happen sooner or later. Real estate developers are all about leverage. And, leverage is all about the cost of capital. The FOMC is trying to create some headroom for the next time they need to rescue the stock market economy — apparently not as important to Trump as are the midterm … continue reading →
Everybody’s talking about interest rates — mostly fears about the yield curve. Even the most vocal market cheerleaders have been seen publicly fretting about the flattening yield curve. Will it invert? What will it mean? Will the market crash? Since our forecasts are pretty much on autopilot at the moment, let’s take a fresh look … continue reading →