Calming the Markets

Futures dipped a bit overnight as reports suggested Trump was considering withdrawing from the WTO.  For the second time this week, Mnuchin came to the rescue with a vehement denial.  And, for the third time this week, the algos got plenty of support from VIX shorting (breaking trend no less)……and USDJPY ramping. What a fitting … continue reading →

Growth Estimates Reduced Again

GDP was revised from 2.2% to 2.0% — highlights: personal consumption lower than expected, prices higher than expected.  The market was ahead of this, with rates continuing to slide.  Bottom line, it doesn’t make a terribly compelling case for two additional rate hikes. Futures are off about 10 points, tagging our next downside target a … continue reading →

The 16th Time a Charm?

SPX tagged our target at the 2.24 Fib extension yesterday — the 16th time it has touched this important level since the beginning of the year. For now, the Fib remains support.  The moment SPX drops through it, it becomes overhead resistance.  And, with the SMA200 now only 38 points below it, potential drops aren’t … continue reading →

The Hits Keep Coming

It’s a rare Monday morning when a ramp doesn’t appear in time for the open.  But, the hits keep coming: more trade problems, more political and economic problems in the euro zone, and the failure of the USDJPY to hold important support.  And, the oil and gas decline might not even be over.It’s a sloppy … continue reading →

OPEC Day: Jun 22, 2018

Oil and gas futures are higher as we await word on the deal being hammered out in Vienna.The latest reports are that we’ll get a 1MM barrel per day increase.  But, Iran is resisting any increase and is threatening to veto any deal that doesn’t include condemnation of the US’ withdrawal from the nuclear deal. … continue reading →

Shades of 2011

We’re going to do sometime a little different today, and take a look back at 2011.  IMO, it’s an excellent analog for the current macro scene — particularly as it concerns inflation, interest rates, and oil and gas. For those who’d like a primer on the relationships between the above and equities, check out April’s … continue reading →

Misdirection

A quick glance at VIX tells you all you need to know about the past two weeks.  VIX has steadily gained since Jun 7.  But, most of the gains have come in the after-hours, elevating VIX to a level from which it can make a meaningful plunge during the next day’s trading session.As ES once … continue reading →

A Backtest, or More?

The Nikkei 225 offers great perspective on today’s selloff.  One of the most heavily manipulated indices on the planet (the BoJ buys stocks outright), it was knee deep in a steeply falling channel from its January highs until Apr 30, when it tagged the top of the channel and the .618 Fib level.  It was … continue reading →