The Calm Before the Storm

Futures are up 10 points overnight, but are still well within the 42-pt range set over the past two days following the latest breakdown.We have a pretty plausible case for considerable additional downside.  But, as we all know, holiday weekends are infamous for pattern-busting breakouts. VIX, perched on the line in the sand between a … continue reading →

A Brief Taste of Reality

For a moment, at least, markets were treated to another taste of reality: rates at an acceptable level, the US dollar reacting accordingly, the USDJPY tumbling normally, VIX not being hammered into submission, and oil prices reflecting fundamentals.  Algos, which have grown accustomed to generous support from all the above, simply reacted as they should … continue reading →

FOMC Day: Mar 21, 2018

All eyes are on the FOMC’s upcoming rate announcement and press conference today.  The slumping yield curve, buoyant 10-yr and lethargic dollar are testament to investors’ angst over the Fed’s game plan. Is there one which can keep inflation high enough (but, not too high), prop up the US dollar, keep interest rates under control, … continue reading →

Update on COMP: Mar 20, 2018

Facebook is only 5.5% of the Nasdaq Composite (COMP), but yesterday’s plunge [see: Facebook Flops] was a good reminder to update our outlook. In our last update [see: Nov 6, 2017 Update] we identified 7619.37 as our next upside target. At this point, it’s pushing into the top quadrant of the rising white channel where … continue reading →