A Break or a Breakdown?

The 10Y yield has clearly broken trend as expected, with a couple of Fib tests the only things standing between it and our downside targets.  Our 28.56 upside target from Jan 10 [see: China – It’s Not Me, It’s You] has officially yielded. This is what stocks were waiting for — a sign that interest … continue reading →

Why Rising Rates Are a Problem This Time

A sharp drop in interest rates has traditionally been a negative for stocks.  The chart below shows that most significant declines in 10-year yields over the years were associated with steep drops in the S&P 500.  Usually, equity losses precipitated the drops in yield.  As stock declines accelerate, money flows into bonds — raising prices … continue reading →

Where to, Next?

It’s an odd feeling when multiple forecasts play out all at once.  It’s exciting, probably not unlike drawing several royal flushes in a row.  Except, in the case of the markets, it has less to do with the luck of the draw and everything to do with detecting how the house has rigged encouraged a … continue reading →