The Run For the Barn

Everybody who’s ever been on horseback knows this term.  Horses instinctively know when the ride is nearly over and they’re headed back to the barn for some oats and grooming. They get a sudden burst of energy that can catch their riders off guard. The market undergoes a similar phenomenon most years.  Everything from performance … continue reading →

It’s Alive!

This morning is all about tech, with GOOGL, MSFT and AMZN all beating estimates — kinda like Q3, GDP, which improbably ignored two major hurricanes and came in at 3%. Not known for questioning the veracity of official government data, S&P 500 futures are up 5.5 points. As a result, ES has broken out of … continue reading →

A Nod to Black Monday

Thirty years ago today the DJIA plunged 508 points (22%) in a single day, sending traders and money managers scurrying for cover and analysts for an explanation. I was trading a (well-hedged) options-based risk arb portfolio at the time and remember well going toe to toe with my compliance department, which had panicked and wanted … continue reading →

Taylor Made

With John Taylor purportedly gaining in the running for next Fed chair, the US dollar shot past overhead resistance this morning.  In the process, it rejoined the rising channel from which it broke down and leapt back above the falling white channel midline. This is an aggressive move which, if it holds, changes the calculus … continue reading →