Next Up: The Fed

Stocks shed over 1% yesterday, easily reaching our initial two targets and almost our third before being rescued.  it was the biggest drop we’ve seen in quite some time.  A little over an hour into the session, VIX decided it had had quite enough.  It plunged 8.8% from its intraday highs…just because.  And, SPX closed … continue reading →

Breaking Out or Down?

It’s been a lousy environment for trading the last 5-6 weeks.  Although SPX closed Friday exactly where our Jan 27 (Day 141) target was set, there have been very few dips since early December that provided in much in the way of trading opportunities — unless you enjoy mindless, intraday dip-buying. Those who trade after-hours have … continue reading →

Goldman’s Slick Trick

As a chartist and technical analyst, I spend an inordinate amount of time thinking about how and why prices get where they’re going.  Like most who forecast markets every day, I gave up on the random walk hypothesis a long time ago.  It’s simply not consistent with the evidence splayed across my monitors every single day.  Goldman Sachs’ recent breakout is … continue reading →

What Now, VIX?

VIX has been playing cat and mouse with traders for months, now.  We’ve seen numerous head-fakes — breakouts which might have signaled sell-offs, that were quickly slammed back down below overhead resistance. As I wrote last month [VIX: Just Another Tool], this has become the norm for this once reliable indicator of risk in the markets.  So, … continue reading →

Tick Tock

Between gas, rent and health care, official CPI rose 0.3% in December and 2.1% from a year ago.  It’s the highest since June 2014, and just a tad below the 2012 highs.  Of course, the official CPI data are as legit as employment data — which is to say “Not!”  For more, see John Williams’ explanation … continue reading →