For Our Next Trick…

There’s one theme that’s characterized this “market” for the past six weeks since Brexit: push a little here, pull a little there — always just enough to keep it on an upward trajectory. Yesterday, it was a USD breakout [see: Manufacturing a Breakout] that kept prices high enough into the end of the month. Nicely done, Fed jawboners. But, … continue reading →

Manufacturing a Breakout

Another day, another Fed official jawboning the dollar higher.  Gee, you’d think they’re trying to get it to break out or something… The US dollar has been heavily manipulated over the past year.  We’ve covered the “why.” As an importing nation, the US needs the things it buys to remain relatively cheap or the “we … continue reading →

Jackson Hold?

Will they, or won’t they?  Even under tenacious grilling by the MSM, the Federales haven’t given much guidance as to whether they’ll hold the line in September.  We have our own thoughts on the matter, which informs our analog [see: A New Analog: Aug 3, 2016.]  It’s still (drumroll, please) on track.  But, today marks one … continue reading →

Good News is Bad Again

We’ve seen a lot of interpretations of the bad news/good news story over the past five years.  We’ve become inured to the idea that bad news is good, because it ensures continued central bank easing — which is supposedly good for the “markets.” So, with ever louder cries for rate and policy normalization, and all eyes on … continue reading →

Headfakes Ahead

With oil on track to our downside target, it suddenly shot up 4% from its overnight lows on rumors which were immediately proven false while failing to drop even a little on quite bearish API inventory.  What else is new? While SPX broke out of the tightest falling channel it had going, it still failed … continue reading →