Is it Safe?

Is there any amount of CL ramping that can compensate for what’s going on in USDJPY?  Apparently so, because the eminis are off only 10 points in the midst of a USDJPY bloodbath. Were it not for CL’s coincidental 1.25% rally, it would be much, much worse. SPX tagged yesterday’s target, then eased a little … continue reading →

BoJ Screws the Pooch

Everything was going so well.  New highs on USDJPY and CL were producing new highs on SPX.  The all-time highs were only a ramp job away.  And, then, Kuroda et al decide to stand pat on an obviously failing stimulative package? I’ve written all too often about the overnight resets on USDJPY and CL, all … continue reading →

Yada, Yada, Yada…

With the FOMC announcement coming tomorrow, we can expect every move from here on out to revolve around the question of whether or not they’ll entertain a rate rise in June.  Given the overwhelming weakness in both earnings and macro, it hardly seems possible.  Yet, they’ve been talking up a storm, trying to portray it … continue reading →

Central Banks…Again

We should get the follow through to Friday’s downside target today.  Beyond that, it depends on how much CL and USDJPY are ramped as the “market” opens. USDJPY hit our upside target on Sunday, then tested the waters on a reversal until the eminis began to sell off in earnest before rebounding to its SMA5 … continue reading →

Carry Trades Whiff

The USDJPY is soaring after the latest machinations out of Japan (rumors of helicopter money), and the futures are yawning. But, even so, the S&P 500 futures are actually off a little — very unusual behavior for a “market” fueled almost entirely by USDJPY and CL. CL, for its part, is currently up 1.5% — … continue reading →

Back to Plan A

With the narrative so egregiously inconsistent with reality, even central bankers are having a hard time maintaining a straight face while propping up oil.  And, the credibility ship sailed a long time ago for these guys. With CL going sideways overnight (the equivalent of a disaster in any other security), it’s back to propping up … continue reading →

No Joy

Sometimes, I take no joy in being right.  Such was the case yesterday, when CL’s utterly nonsensical rebound led stocks to new highs. …just watch CL’s rebounds during today’s session.  I promise you that one will occur every time SPX starts plunging just a little too fast. The rebound was good for 20 points on … continue reading →