The S&P 500 is up over 10% for the year (well…if it closes above 2248.33.) Is it time to break out the champagne and party hats? We’ll take a look at how stocks got to where they are, and what to expect in the coming year. The Ascendency of VIX One of the biggest developments this past year was central banks’ … continue reading →
Yearly Archives: 2016
The Nikkei 225 (NKD) makes a great statement about the silliness of the past seven weeks. Like US equity futures, it fell apart on election night, only to be resurrected by algos tied to the prices of oil, which rallied 27% off its lows, and USDJPY, which rallied 17%. NKD’s subsequent price action was, to put it … continue reading →
This is the time of year when charts get downright silly. Stock prices, which are highly susceptible to algo-linked manipulation anyway, are completely under control in this low-volume environment. A casual glance at the USDJPY chart bears this out. It’s nothing but a series of breakdowns which morphed into breakouts. The only saving grace of such an environment … continue reading →
We will be closed for the holidays December 22 – 27. I want to wish all our friends a very merry Christmas. Whatever your faith tradition, may this season be filled with peace, joy and hope. … continue reading →
It’s been a while since we last updated natural gas [see: Mar 28 Update.]. At the time, NG had bounced up to 1.852 after recently testing the 1999 lows. I wrote that, despite strong selling pressure and upcoming seasonal influences… …there’s strong support for NG, and TPTB might well have made up their minds that … continue reading →
VIX just reached a 10 handle, something it hasn’t done since Aug 5, 2015 — shortly before SPX fell off a 245-pt cliff. If you were to ask me how low VIX can go, I’d have to answer “as low as it needs to in order to keep stocks melting up.” continued for members… … continue reading →
Pity the poor guys working the VIX button this holiday season. They’ve had no rest for the past few days, and are unlikely to have any until after the new year dawns. Yesterday was a prime example. ES made several attempts to break down before the open, only to be undone by a 5% decline … continue reading →
Today, we get a chance to find out whether or not our analog from several months ago is still on track. It’s shaping up nicely so far, with USDJPY and CL both coming down off their recent highs and the futures sitting just barely in the green. Analogs are funny things. Since we first announced … continue reading →
It’s quad-witching Friday, which means we’ll likely see plenty of swings and plenty of head fakes in the light volume ahead. Our analog remains on track, with no change in our outlook. continued for members…
Thanks to docjay for pointing out that gold is nearing the downside target from our Dec 5 Update. A word of caution, though: GC is currently testing an important internal TL of support even as DX is testing important overhead resistance. continued for members… … continue reading →