Fed Still in Protection Mode

Short version of the Fed statement: “Everything is simply fabulous; but, we’re going to hold off for at least a few months on raising rates because you just never know…” Apparently, after 7 years of lower or zero interest rates, we’ll never know.  There was some word tweaking that I’ll leave to the linguistically-focused.  The … continue reading →

Incredulity

When I first discovered the current analog back in March, it fascinated me that such an obvious pattern even existed.  I had pretty much resigned myself to never finding another one as spectacular as the 2011 as 2007 analog. It has obviously helped our daily forecasts tremendously.  But, best of all, it has made it … continue reading →

CL Pulls One Out, Again

When a rally fizzles because USDJPY is faltering, CL can usually be counted on to come to the rescue. Such was the case with this morning’s pop and drop  (the drop just plain looked bad, coming as it did during the FOMC brain trust’s powwow.) What’s an HFT-wielding central banker to do?  Simple: CL, which … continue reading →

Backtest, or More?

Following the 5th sell off in a row, the S&P 500 futures reached the SMA200 again yesterday.  It started with a sell off in USDJPY (yen strength, dollar weakness.) So, it’s only natural that when the panic button was pushed, it activated an overnight ramp job in USDJPY……and, thus, ES.  Look carefully, though, and you’ll … continue reading →

At Last

The long-awaited final movement of the analog we’ve been watching for four months is here.  Originally floated on Mar 27, it has done a bang up job of signally the USDJPY’s moves which, in turn, have helped tremendously in our daily forecasting. Though I’ve vacillated on the target price over the past couple of months, … continue reading →