When we last updated the Nikkei 225 [see Oct 14 post], we noted the rising purple channel had broken down and the downside was in the 14,000-14,200 range (from 15,030 at the time.) Keep an eye on the falling red channel. The next major support is way down at the white channel midline where it … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: October 2014
If you’re just checking in and wondering why the futures are up over 20 points this morning, last night the Bank of Japan, in a 5-4 vote, increased its annual QQE target from 60-70 trillion yen to 80 trillion. This means that the BOJ is now buying every single bond that it issues — also … continue reading →
Stocks rightly sold off yesterday, almost reaching the SMA50 before USDJPY/NKD ramping and VIX shorting arrested the decline and shoe-horned stocks to a little over 61.8% of the decline from the 1991 highs. On this morning’s GDP news, USDJPY reached just shy of the .886 of its decline from the 110.07 highs, reversing strongly but … continue reading →
I could make all sorts of arguments for why the “market” should be moving lower. But, the reality is that prices are still being driven by Fed/ECB/BOJ easing, promises of easing, and hints of easing. Although QE3 is officially over, just the hint of additional easing by Bullard the Blinker were enough to drive a … continue reading →
The website seems to be up and running just fine again. Thanks for your patience during yesterday’s maintenance. Durable goods orders gave back almost all of last month’s gains. Headlines per Bloomberg: Durable goods new orders fell 18.3% in Aug., the Census Bureau said New orders ex-trans. fell 0.2% in Sept. after 0.7% … continue reading →
pebblewriter.com will be down for maintenance for some or all of the weekend. I will post on pebblewriter.blogspot.com if it’s not up by Monday morning.
ES and SPX have both reacted off their SMA100s, but not much of a reaction yet. A backtest of the SMA20 or lower would make sense, even if prices are still headed higher. Keep an eye on VIX, as discussed in last night’s post. GLTA. … continue reading →
In keeping with our “this-thing-could-break-either-way” theme, VIX is prepared to either break out or break down. Note the well-formed falling channel containing the decline since the 15th. From all appearances, I’d say it makes a great argument for a continued slide in VIX (higher stock prices). But, the bigger picture argues quite the opposite. VIX’s … continue reading →
USDJPY provided the lift last night, making a bid to break out of the falling white channel. The key is whether it can break through the SMA20. SPX reacted, belatedly, at the purple .618 (1943.33) as expected. The futures indicate a bounce to backtest it. From there, we’ll have to see whether the yen and … continue reading →
This could break either way. But, as ZH pointed out earlier, VIX has never, ever, declined 10%+ for three days in a row. I’m thinking at least a breather, and maybe something much bigger. The trend line coming up from the lower left corner that SPX is backtesting connects some rather noteworthy lows — make … continue reading →