Today should be a carbon copy of yesterday: ignoring dismal economic news, ignoring the 10-yr note warning signs, ramping on USDJPY/NKD, BTFATH, etc. Chart Patterns, Elliott Wave, technical analysis do not apply on the last day of the month which, for PR purposes, has been green for the past three months. Unless a true black … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: May 2014
I’m having intermittent technical issues today, so will not be posting intra-day. The daily charts tell the story: a 1.618 Fib line just overhead at SPX 1920.63 and ES 1910.50. The only issue…the markets have routinely ignored harmonics when it comes to limiting rallies (while choosing the most bullish Fibs to limit declines.) Note the … continue reading →
The PPT swinging into action this morning in the unrigged “market.” The 10-yr note is coincidentally bid at the former lows… NKD catches a bid at the channel bottom… …and, ES catches a bid at the 1.618 it should be reversing off of. Make no mistake, the market should be tanking. But, the month … continue reading →
Holiday weekend + Tuesday + 1900 barrier broken = strong ramp. NKD hit an imporrtant Fib level and the SMA100, but is probably aiming for the SMA200 and purple .618 combo at 14787/14796. At some point, folks will start to realize the yen carry trade is nearing an end. While, USDJPY features a nice Fib … continue reading →
Remember, no POMO today. Our thesis about NKD was weakened as it popped a bit overnight. There is still overhead resistance and a rising wedge, but not as compelling since it exceeded the 5/13 high. Likewise, USDJPY was ramped a bit after the close yesterday, fell during Tokyo trading, and was ramped again after their … continue reading →
The problem with bubbles is you have to decide whether to look like an idiot before they peak, or look like an idiot after they peak. John Hussman The Nikkei has been repeating a clear pattern for many months, now. Each dip to the neckline of a large H&S Pattern has bounced back to a … continue reading →
Abe confirms no increase in QQE for now, so a measly ¥70 trillion per annum still. The USDJPY wasn’t thrilled at the news, and traded down through the SMA200 yet again — this time testing the Feb 4 lows. Needless to say, the lack of increases in QQE doesn’t mean the BOJ won’t work to … continue reading →
It’s not Home Depot. It’s not the Keystone pipeline (though you gotta love Rick Perry’s new nerdy specs — pushup bra for the brain?) It’s not housing. Thailand is under martial law, and the bhat ain’t looking so hot. Note the central banker prop job in play in the chart below. The yen is the … continue reading →
We talk a lot about the markets being “propped up.” It’s not just an expression, as the following charts for the Nikkei, USDJPY, DX and 10-yr note will affirm. In fact, even a casual glance at the charts below should destroy any notion that these are “markets” any more at all. Note the dashed, yellow … continue reading →
It does get tiresome, the talking heads blathering on about the signals being sent by the bond market — whether lower rates reflect a better economy, worse economy, or simply Fed tapering. The bottom line? As we pointed out way back in December, a plunging 10-yr has correlated with lower stock prices ever since Jan … continue reading →