USDJPY continues to bump along the .236 white channel line — working its way back toward the .618 at 120.11. The fact that it didn’t snap back has to be viewed as a bearish development. Though in the light volume and holiday-shortened sessions ahead I wouldn’t try to take that to the bank. After all, … continue reading →
Yearly Archives: 2014
USDJPY dropped over 1.25% overnight, so the e-minis (thin purple line) followed right along — to a point. Note the floor under ES that corresponded with USDJPY reaching the purple .618 and white channel line on the 60-min chart below. The daily chart for the past year better shows the steepness of the white channel, … continue reading →
We’ve been wondering for the past month or so whether SPX would take a shot at pushing through the upcoming major resistance at 2138-2145 prior to year end, or hang back in a “safe zone” until after 2014 was in the bank. The key determinants have been a select few instruments and currencies: VIX, DX, … continue reading →
Wednesday’s last minute sell-off fulfilled our expectation of a small sell-off, though it only got as close as 2081 before the close. My expectation is that we’ll get a small sell-off somewhere along the way — perhaps as early as at the close today — just to shake out the weak bulls and set the … continue reading →
Wishing all our friends a very merry Christmas. Whatever your faith tradition, may the true meaning of the holiday fill your homes with peace, joy and hope. … continue reading →
Things continue to go pretty much as planned, though there are a few currency-related bumps in the road just ahead. DX, having reached our year-end target yesterday, is reversing. Whether it will amount to something meaningful or is just a head fake remains to be seen. USDJPY has clearly lost a little momentum in the … continue reading →
The third of our Dec 3 year-end targets [see: Update on Currencies] has been reached. USDJPY: 120.05 EURUSD: 1.22635 DX: 90.272 DX just tagged our 90.272 target a little ahead of schedule. Recall that this represents the 38.2% retracement of the Big Drop from 121 in 2001 to 71 in 2008. The spike in DX … continue reading →
Today’s action should be about new highs. We’ve had USDJPY ramping, and now face the .618 at the white channel midline which remains the line in the sand… …and, SPX testing its former ATH… …all in an effort to leave the 1.272 in the dust. One of the major constituents in ramping SPX ever higher … continue reading →
SPX reversed as expected at the SMA20, but didn’t quite reach the optimal backtest of the megaphone pattern (2033 v 2026.) From Tuesday’s update: As for key levels, look for resistance at the SMA10 (2040, also the purple .618) and SMA20 (2050.) The more important level is probably the red TL — currently around 2060 … continue reading →
I’ve had several inquiries in the past couple of weeks regarding memberships to this website. While I haven’t provided intra-day calls on the site for well over a year, I have quietly continued to publish daily observations and viewpoints on short and longer-term moves in key indices, instruments and currency pairs. I have found that … continue reading →