A Rock and a Hard Place

The eminis completed a nice Head & Shoulders Pattern, but bounced off the neckline… right into a backtest of the broken purple channel midline. The 60-min RSI chart shows the dilemma: support on the rising purple channel, resistance at the falling yellow midline. I would normally give a 6-month channel midline the benefit of the … continue reading →

Update on NKD: May 29, 2013

While the Nikkei hasn’t officially been on our hit list, it’s certainly been fascinating to watch.  Today, it earned its very own page on pebblewriter.com. Late last night (early this morning?) I updated the USDJPY [HERE] which was at a critical point in its own rally to the moon.  It recently broke down through the … continue reading →

Update on NYSE: May 28, 2013

NYA recently reached an important turning point.  More than any other index, it suggests that a significant downturn has arrived.  The only hitch?  Its Harmonic Patterns have typically been overruled by SPX. In April 2010, NYA was still 3.4% away from its 61.8% Fib level when SPX, 0.7% away from its 61.8% retracement, reversed sharply.  … continue reading →


As vicious as yesterday’s reversal seemed, it was only a fraction of size of the three previous downturns. -4.4% over six sessions in late December 2012 -3.1% over four sessions in February -3.9% over five sessions in April 2013 SPX should catch up with the futures this morning, reaching the purple midline around 1632-1633.  We … continue reading →