Draghi’s press conference was beyond positive — mostly rhetoric, of course, but it sounded good. The ECB sees conditions improving, blah, blah, blah even as euro zone unemployment continues to set record highs and bank health hits record lows. Facts might eventually enter the equation or not, but in the meantime it’s enough for currency … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: January 2013
The little H&S pattern we were watching yesterday busted this morning, with a ramp job up to the .786 (so far) of the previous high eclipsing the proposed right shoulder. I’ll move the RS tag over to this morning’s high for now unless we take out 1465 — at which point the RS would exceed … continue reading →
We’re getting a little more momentum going on the downside today. SPX completed the small H&S pattern I posted yesterday. It targets 1445 — approximately the .146 Fib of the 1266.74 – 1474.51 rally. DX completed its back test of the falling red channel and continues to show strong positive divergence. The RSI chart shows … continue reading →
We got the reversal we were looking for last Friday, but as detailed in the last forecast there is still some uncertainty as to the ultimate outcome of this latest rally. We remain short from 1462, but a stop in the 1466-1468 range would be prudent. A rally through 1474 changes our forecast, as discussed … continue reading →
Alice laughed: “There’s no use trying,” she said; “one can’t believe impossible things.” “I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was younger, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” ― Lewis Carroll, Alice’s Adventures … continue reading →
EURUSD is approaching the critical bottom of a large rising wedge, after having maxed out at the .618 time Fib and .886 price Fib. Daily RSI indicates a break down of the wedge. But, watch out for the mid-line of the forming white price channel. It could put a floor under the pair’s decline around … continue reading →
USDJPY reached the first of our two target areas [see: USDJPY Update.] Back on Dec 18, we noted an upcoming channel midline that, if broken, could see a breakout to the trio of Fib levels represented by the first shaded rectangle. We got that channel break and tagged the target area. The Japanese central planners … continue reading →
“In another moment down went Alice after it, never once considering how in the world she was to get out again.” ― Lewis Carroll, Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland Not quite four months ago, the Fed guaranteed lower interest rates and higher stock prices forever. At least that was the mainstream media’s take on QE3. The … continue reading →
ORIGINAL POST: 9:25 AM Futures are showing a big jump this morning, with the last high of 1448 obviously threatened. But, the currencies suggest this morning’s rally should be only a very deep retracement. The dollar sank a good deal, but only to the bottom of the purple channel (so long, white channel.) Immediate downside … continue reading →