When The Music Stops: Jan 31, 2013

  Lots more economic data out today.  Unemployment claims jumped 38,000 – much higher than expectations, but personal income also beat (thought to be explained by income shifting by those concerned about higher 2013 tax rates.) Real Consumer spending is probably the data set that best settles the conflict — up an anemic 0.2% in … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jan 29, 2013

Currencies are relatively quiet this morning in the midst of a slew of earnings and economic data. The dollar looks like it could hit our downside target of 79.50 – 79.59 from Jan 25 [see: Update on DX] this morning if the yellow channel holds, but note that its midline intersects with the bottom of … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jan 28, 2013

A positive durable goods report, mixed CAT earnings and the usual meaningless NAR drivel (this time negative, but being spun as a lack of inventory) have combined to drive SPX down 5 points.As we discussed Friday, the bottom of the purple channel (1498) and/or midline of the white (1496.50) are good trigger points for those … continue reading →

Trading with Harmonics

The first of a two-part article on harmonics trading strategies. Part 1.  January 28, 2013 Harmonics are a great source of information about the market, but they don’t tell you how or when to trade any more than do MACD crosses or breadth indicators.  So, how do you use them?  This discussion of the basic … continue reading →

The Dow: Time to Double Down?

Many are watching the Dow Transports’ recent all-time highs, wondering if Dow Theory suggests new highs for the DJIA as well. Without wading into the debate over which interpretation of the theory holds water and which are all wet, I think it’s important to recognize that the DJIA is one of those indices not making … continue reading →

The Big Sleep

This market is just like that great scene from the Bogart & Bacall classic directed by Howard Hawks.  Not the steamy love scenes or the chase scene or the tension filled dramatic scenes — but the credit roll at the start of the movie. We know something really cool is coming, but there’s a lot … continue reading →

New Charts: 10-yr Notes

First, an important caveat:  I’m not a bond guy.  Never have been, never will be — at least with long bonds under 8%.  I find the idea of sinking even one dollar into a security (on credit watch, mind you) that guarantees less than 2% for 10 years ridiculous. But, different strokes and all that.  … continue reading →