Everybody’s talking about interest rates — mostly fears about the yield curve. Even the most vocal market cheerleaders have been seen publicly fretting about the flattening yield curve. Will it invert? What will it mean? Will the market crash? Since our forecasts are pretty much on autopilot at the moment, let’s take a fresh look … continue reading →
Housing starts collapsed 12.3% in June, the 4th worst report in the last 5 years. Permits dropped 2.2%. Futures barely budged on the news……as the 4% GDP growth narrative continues to dominate the headlines (Kudlow takes the mic at Delivering Alpha) and algos continue to be well-supported by favorable currency moves……and, conveniently timed dips in … continue reading →
One of the most interesting charts to float across my desk this morning was this one from FactSet, citing currency factors and cost increases as companies’ top concerns on their Q2 earnings calls.With oil, gas and the dollar up significantly over the past several months, it’s not a huge surprise. Nor is it a surprise … continue reading →
A quick glance at NFLX’s daily chart shows it has significant additional downside potential. The most obvious downside target is the 100-DMA at 338.73. But, the 200-DMA is approaching the white channel midline and should cross it at around 298-300 on or about August 6. It makes for a nice downside target if the SMA100 … continue reading →
Futures are flat at the moment, despite sizeable moves in WTI (-2.14%) and RBOB (-2.62%) and a sharp pop in rates. While we wait for oil and gas to reach our downside targets, I thought it would be a good time to revisit our yield curve charts. Many of you will remember this chart from … continue reading →
As we discussed yesterday, USDJPY has reached a critical line in the sand. As one of the primary drivers of equity algos [see: Yen Carry Trade] this creates a potential headwind for stocks. Over the years, oil and the USDJPY have mostly offset each other – with one bolstering stocks while the other resets (or, … continue reading →
We’ve been beating the inflation drum for months, wondering when the folks behind the curtain would finally pull the levers to reign in energy prices. Yesterday was a good start, as gasoline and WTI futures were both off sharply. Ordinarily, we’d expect to see stocks suffer in tandem. But, as we discussed yesterday morning: So … continue reading →
One nice thing about patterns is that they give you something to hang your hat on. When we drew the Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern on Jul 3 [see: Holiday Headfake] there was nothing in the news to suggest a 100-pt rally in the ensuing week. Yet, SPX and ES landed within a point or … continue reading →
USDJPY reached our upside target this morning, tagging the top of the falling white channel from 2015. This is the terminus of a move which began in late March [see: Algos to Markets – All Better.] This is a pivotal point for the pair, particularly since ES reached its IH&S target overnight.continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are slipping higher this morning… …primarily on follow through from VIX’s dump below support.continued for members… … continue reading →