If you’ve been under a rock lately, you might be surprised to find oil 10% higher, the world on the brink of a new Gulf War and the stock market not ramping to new highs over the weekend.While higher oil prices are usually a net positive for stocks, this is one of those stark exceptions. … continue reading →
The past few days have seen an escalation in the battle between market forces and Trump’s tweet-driven algos. Trump and his minions are desperate to see stocks make new all-time highs and have issued a steady stream of breathless trade and tax-related pronouncements possessing little substance but great influence on the algos. The algos have, … continue reading →
It is perhaps fitting that SPX has waited until today to peak again. Today is Mario Draghi’s last press conference as president of the ECB but also as presider over the great monetary experiment which has kept the euro zone on life support for the past 10 years. SPX is poised to reach 3004.51, our … continue reading →
Continuing the string of data arguing against a rate cut, PPI and Core PPI both came in hotter than expected. Core increased 2.3% from August 2018.Futures, which are in levitation mode after a sharp intraday recovery yesterday, barely noticed. Virtually nothing has changed from yesterday’s forecast. Though, we have an important EIA report coming out … continue reading →
Most of the signs are not very bearish. We haven’t had a decent reversal candle. VIX is in the basement. The moving averages are all wrong. But, our analog says otherwise. So, let’s be bearish, shall we? continued for members… … continue reading →
The last time I felt compelled to use this title for a post, SPX plunged 105 points off its intraday highs within the next 24 hours. This one should be more violent. * * * All the talk about the necessity of a 50 bps rate cut (100 bps according to the president) got me … continue reading →
With yesterday’s VIX algo-driven eruption in the rear view and this morning’s disappointing jobs report in hand, all attention now turns to the Fed. Will they or won’t they cut rates? And, if they do, will it top 25 bps? Consensus still seems to be for a 25 bps cut. But, Powell will be pressed … continue reading →
On Day 427 of the “good and easy to win” trade war with China, we get news that the parties will sit down again sometime in October. Naturally, there has been no deescalation of any kind lately. In fact, the actions and rhetoric have increased over the past week. But, the algos could care less. … continue reading →
Futures ramped higher overnight……purportedly on a perceived reduction in risk from Hong Kong, Britain and Italy. The primary drivers of the algos, however, were a sharp bounce in oil and a gap lower in VIX — neither of which should have much staying power. Hence, just another head fake that should be faded. continued for … continue reading →
All in all, it’s been a pretty good first month for our analog. Rallies have generally fallen short of projections, but declines have more than compensated. The initial drop was faster and farther than expected, which was somewhat unnerving and threatened to wreak havoc with the timeline. But, we’re back on track thanks to last … continue reading →