In our December 26 Update, we noted that gold had broken out of a rising channel and was headed for several upside targets including 1292.10, 1346.30 and 1369.40. Yesterday, it reached the 1346.30 target — a nice 14.7% rally since our Aug 15 bottom call at 1173.60.Interestingly, its latest spike has coincided with continued strength … continue reading →
We had a lovely snowfall Sunday night. The Monday morning landscape was exquisite, with a beautiful frosting adorning the pines lining our street. There was just enough snow underfoot to look charming, but not enough to require shoveling. Unfortunately, there was also just enough to hide the dangerous black ice lurking below. As I lay … continue reading →
Yesterday’s setup for the e-minis looked pretty straightforward: a drop through the 200-day moving average and backtest of the 2.24 Fibonacci extension at 2729. Futures had already dropped through the 200-DMA and were heading south when the dismal retail sales data dropped. I hedged my bet, redrawing our daily downside target to include the 10-DMA … continue reading →
After pushing above its 200-DMA and key 2.24 Fib levels, SPX seemingly had it made in the shade. This morning’s huge retail sales miss (-1.2% versus +0.1% expected) might complicate things. Perhaps Bloomberg put it best in the title of the following chart. The control group came in at an even more dismal -1.7%, the … continue reading →
SPX is back above its SMA200. All it took was convening the Plunge Protection Team which was — purely by coincidence — followed by VIX collapsing from 36 to 15, WTI spiking from 42 to 55, and USDJPY ramping from 104.60 to 110.90. The algos are very well versed in how to respond to such … continue reading →
A week ago today, SPX tagged an important Fib target that would have been a perfect turning point were it not short of the 200-DMA. As we noted at the time [see: The Red Zone] a reversal without tagging the 200-DMA would have been highly unusual. There have been no instances of SPX approaching but … continue reading →
It was a close call but, in the end, bulls prevailed. As we are reminded by those lovable Legos (yes, they’re back) everything is awesome! VIX is back below support and SPX’s rising channel is intact. The Dow, the market’s best barometer of bullish interference, is back above its SMA200. See if you can spot … continue reading →
SUBSCRIBERS: Just updated our forecast page, including RB, CL, DXY, USDJPY, EURUSD, SPX/ES, Gold, VIX, COMP, DJIA, AAPL and bonds. Check it out HERE. * * * Rumbling toward the end zone, the bears ran into the bulls’ best defender: VIX. As ES tagged our channel-line target a day ahead of schedule (and, therefore at … continue reading →
With the overconfident bulls emboldened by the 200-day moving average looming just above, the bears have run a trick play and have the goal line in sight.To be sure, there are half a dozen defenders in between here and a score – starting with 380-lb All-Pro VIX. Its 200-DMA at 16.54 is now resistance, and … continue reading →
Nothing much has changed since yesterday. SPX bounced around in our target zone, coming within a few points of its SMA200 as VIX went nowhere. The one notable exception was AAPL, which after tagging our downside target on Jan 3 $from last November [see: AAPL Discovers Gravity] reached our upside target yesterday. We originally charted … continue reading →