Yesterday was all about fine tuning, positioning SPX/ES for a breakout — which arrived at 2am courtesy of the breakdown in VIX we were expecting. Is the start of another prolonged period of VIX bashing? And why now? Has it anything to do with DXY finally breaking down? continued for members… … continue reading →
ES reached new highs yesterday, but SPX reversed at its .886 Fib retracement. Which should we believe? Since VIX is plunging in the minutes before the open, indications are that this morning’s selloff will be just enough for SPX to flesh out its latest rising channel — also on the way to new highs. What … continue reading →
Catch this news flash yesterday? Trump, ironically at a White House meeting with the National Council for the American Worker: You’re gonna see on China, today, right after close of business…we’ll be announcing something, uh, and it will be a lot of money coming into the coffers of the United States of America, a lot … continue reading →
Stocks slid sharply on Friday following news that tariffs on an additional $200 billion in Chinese goods would be announced today. We got the usual V-shaped recovery by the close; but, futures are still a few points in the red this morning. The biggest impact, so far, has been on rates. The 10Y popped through … continue reading →
Retail sales disappointed, coming in at a paltry 0.1% — well below expectations of 0.5%. Once again, we see how dependent the data is on gas prices. And, once again, we’re left to wonder if the number would be positive at all if: (a) accurate inflation adjustments were used, and (b) the impact of the … continue reading →
I first began focusing on DB in September 2016, when a consulting client asked me to opine as to whether the stock was circling the drain or represented a buying opportunity. In our original post [see: Deutsche Bank, Will it Survive?] I concluded that a huge falling channel dating back to 1997 made it a … continue reading →
With futures stuck in a consolidation for the past two weeks… …and, VIX finally breaking down, is it just possible we’ll see a rally this morning? And, why not? Thanks to the timely dip in oil and gas prices (and, some creative accounting over at the BLS), CPI came in at an annual rate of … continue reading →
This is the most interesting PPI report in some time. The headline number fell from 3.3% to 2.8%. But, Core PPI (less food, energy and trade services) ticked higher. We’re used to seeing food and energy prices as the cause of higher inflation. Apparently, this time it’s everything else that is ticking higher. When core … continue reading →
After a reasonably clean backtest of its January highs, ES has broken trend and is back below that benchmark as well as its SMA20. Currently in the red by 11 points, SPX is indicated as opening below its January highs (2872.87.) So, either we get some algo heroics in the next hour or the market … continue reading →
The backtest we expected last week played out almost exactly as planned. So, naturally, we’re getting a fairly typical Monday morning meltup. None of last week’s troublesome issues have dissipated, but the market has made a statement about additional downside. All we’re waiting on now is for VIX to follow through with a breakdown. continued … continue reading →