One of the more effective factors in prompting algos to buy stocks is the price of oil. Yet, as we’ve been discussing, higher oil prices are a double-edged sword as they can drive inflation to levels which prompt uncomfortably high interest rates. Thus, even though the latest 3-D chess moves out of the White House … continue reading →
Futures dipped 11 points below the SMA10 overnight, only to be rescued by retail sales data that beat expectations (+1.6% vs 1.0%)The beat was primarily attributable to soaring gasoline prices and auto sales — a double-edged sword, of course, from an inflation standpoint.The only chart that continues to matter, however is VIX. It has been … continue reading →
One of life’s certainties over the past decade or so has been that the BOJ would always find a way to keep the Nikkei rallying. When QEn ran out of steam, there was always direct purchases of stocks via ETFs. So, it was surprising to see NKD’s rising channel, in place since Fukushima, break down … continue reading →
As we discussed last week, VIX is at the threshold of what would be a major break in trend. Every such past setup in which VIX broke down resulted in stocks breaking out above important overhead resistance.S&P futures are up 10 points and are now only about 27 points from all-time highs — the result … continue reading →
Time flies when you’re having fun. It’s hard to believe it’s been almost three years since Brexit first broke. I initially looked at EURGBP as an interesting trade opportunity. With the EURGBP at .7622, it looked like there was a good chance it would end up at .86 or so. This was our daily chart … continue reading →
The grind higher continues, driven by an earnings beat by JPM and Chevron’s $33 billion offer for Anadarko. It hasn’t hurt that USDJPY has (again) spiked above its SMA200……and VIX is (again) testing trend line support dating back to its 8.56 lows on November 24, 2017.As an aside, that 2017 low was a bit of … continue reading →
PPI just confirmed what CPI declared yesterday: Despite official White House discourse, there is inflation.Of course, it’s very clear that food, energy and trade services are the primary drivers. Without them, PPI is as low as it was in Aug 2017.As a reminder, when Aug 2017 PPI was announced, the 10Y was about 2.1% versus … continue reading →
Oil and gas prices are up strongly since December. While it has been extremely beneficial to algo-driven portfolios, the inflation chickens are coming home to roost. MoM CPI rose to 0.4%, driving the YoY rate back up to 1.9%. While a single month pop isn’t all that alarming, there’s a very good chance that these … continue reading →
Things got off to a nice start for bears yesterday…until our old friend the V-shaped recovery showed up. Even when it looked like it would falter, it just kept melting up. So, instead of a clean, simple channel to 2875.15, ES has this ridiculous path to follow — all for the sake of delaying the … continue reading →
This is an important week for economic data, leading off with Durable Goods this morning at 10am. Following later in the week, we’ll get CPI, PPI, import/export prices, continuing claims and consumer sentiment — not to mention FOMC minutes. This morning, we’ll take a look at durable goods new orders – a pretty good indicator … continue reading →