SPX and ES came within 2 points of their SMA200s on the opening yesterday. They were on their way for another try (the yellow arrow) at 10:30 when EIA’s crude inventory report was released. It was a surprise build, meaning there was more oil sloshing around than folks expected. According to fundamental analysts who pay … continue reading →
Yesterday got us most of the way to our next downside targets. If our monkey bones are to be believed, though, we have a little further to fall before tagging the 200-day moving averages. And, that’s when things could get really interesting. The bulls would like nothing more than a clean and jerk at SPX … continue reading →
That master of incredulity stretching himself, Haruhiko Kuroda, insists that Japan will reach 2% CPI sometime in the next five years. That was all the yen carry trade algos needed to hear. USJDPY reached our initial upside target with ease, and is threatening to keep going. The futures, which have really struggled to climb on … continue reading →
Bottom line, they’re all looking pretty vulnerable at this point… AMZN shows negative divergence and a bearish RSI channel.Ditto for NFLX. AAPL is due to drop through its SMA200 — never a very bullish development for any stock. And, FB has yet to make it back above its neckline — or, any support, really. If … continue reading →
Markets face a difficult task, today: keep the rally alive while interest rates and inflation are making investors very, very nervous. The interest rate breakout continues, with TNX reaching 29.75 moments ago. It was enough to get DXY back up to its neckline again — the 5th backtest so far. Anything higher, though, would be … continue reading →
Most students of the markets are aware of the important relationships between oil and gasoline prices, inflation and interest rates. Understanding these relationships can provide useful insight into the economy and broader markets. Digging deeper into the trends, reversals and divergences, however, yields evidence that the relationships are nowhere near as random as the casual … continue reading →
SPX has now achieved two of the three milestones that could see it return to an unfettered bullish state of affairs. Thanks to the continuing and precision meltdown of VIX, it was able to not only hold the IH&S neckline, but pop back above its Fib 2.24 extension at 2703.62. And, lest there was any … continue reading →
It took six sessions, but SPX is finally back above the neckline we laid out two weeks ago. For the bulls, this was an important achievement. It not only gives them a new, higher level of vital support than the SMA200. But, it gives them a specific upside target which. Note that IH&S upside targets … continue reading →
Friday marked SPX’s second attempt to top the neckline of a sizeable IH&S Pattern. The ramp couldn’t hold, however, and the index tumbled as much as 35 points from its highs. The futures currently point to another attempt on 2670. With the Syrian conflict seemingly on the back burner again, will the third attempt succeed?continued … continue reading →
Futures have opened up a 14-pt gain overnight, positioning SPX to finally break through its IH&S neckline at 2670. Leading the way: USDJPY, which broke out yesterday… …and VIX, which is finally breaking down after weeks of indecision. The bulls are not out of the woods just yet. SPX still has to hold 2670 and … continue reading →