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Another overnight ramp job that’s fading as the open approaches. And, surprise! SMA10s are threatening to roll over. continued for members… … continue reading →
As expected, inflation perked up last month – registering 2.05% on an annual, non-adjusted basis. All things being equal, oil/gas prices alone would have added at least 0.10% to CPI. There wasn’t a big YoY drop as we’ve seen in the previous six months. But, all things weren’t equal. Core inflation remains elevated at 2.3%, … continue reading →
Inflation drives interest rates. Though the Fed probably wishes they didn’t, it’s an inconvenient truth. There are much tighter correlations, but consider the strong positive correlation between CPI and 10Y notes. This matters, of course, because with $22 trillion in debt, the US faces the same problem as the ECB and Japan: High interest rates … continue reading →
Today is the 5th session since ES tagged our 3076 target. Four times it has bounced off the bottom of a very orderly, sharply rising channel — which is just what the doctor ordered. Will today be the fifth? continued for members… … continue reading →
NFP came in at 266K, smashing expectations of 183K. Wage growth held steady at +3.1% overall and +3.7% for non-supervisory. Bottom line, a strong report that any argument for additional Fed rate cuts. The market will have to be content with not-QE. continued for members… … continue reading →
When running up debt over twice your GDP doesn’t help your economy recover, what’s left? Japan is switching gears and will reportedly try fiscal stimulus — this only two months after a 25% hike in sales taxes. The market is unclear how the $239 billion stimulus will be funded – but it supposedly involves some … continue reading →
ES and SPX safely tagged their backtest targets yesterday, scampering back to safety by the close. Around 2:40AM, however, ES’ channel looked to be in trouble again. ES even dropped through its SMA5 200 – a no-no in any meltup scenario. As luck (not!) would have it, someone in the administration (not Trump, we know … continue reading →
We’ve been waiting for what seems forever for the 2.618 Fib backtest [see: Melting Up.] It took 8 sessions to break above it, and 14 sessions since it was last tagged. Now, two sessions later than expected, it’s finally here. What next? The usual V-shaped rebound to meltup, or does something more sinister lie ahead? … continue reading →
The ramp job of the past six months started after SPX had broken down below the 200-DMA in June. It subsequently saw a breakout of the falling white channel, four additional near tests of the 200-DMA, a backtest of the falling white channel, a breakout of the rising purple channel, and, last week, a breakout … continue reading →
Loads of positive economic news this morning — which might just upset the “Fed put” narrative. Durable goods was the biggest beat, coming in at +0.6% versus a consensus drop. But, the gains came from government/defense orders. Core goods continue to disappoint. We’ve been watching for a crack in the meltup, with the next few … continue reading →