During the Oct 11 Oval Office press conference in which Trump announced the Phase One China trade deal, he mentioned the words “40 or 50 billion” seven times (five times in the first two minutes alone.) He encouraged farmers to “go and immediately buy more land and get bigger tractors.” In addition, an agreement was … continue reading →
We’ll get a chance today to find out what so unnerved the FOMC in October that they lowered fed funds rates to 1.50-1.75%. This level was last seen in March 21, 2018 (when SPX was 13% lower.) At the time, the FOMC was still raising rates in the wake of that sharp 12% correction. In … continue reading →
Futures melted up an additional 10 points overnight, largely on another VIX test and USDJPY buoyancy.With ES’ SMA20 nearly at the 2.618 Fib extension and the overhang of two channel tops, we could finally see the pullback discussed yesterday. If not, it’s a different path all together. continued for members… … continue reading →
The market has ignored the most obvious reversal points. Does that mean the waters are safe? For what warning signs should we be watching? We’ll take a look back at the patterns exhibited in the last few meltups. The first is that backtests happen. The tricky part is the timing. ES is currently about 44 … continue reading →
Another day, another breathless Kudlow report on trade talk progress. At the open, SPX will have risen almost 6% since the Phase One deal agreement was announced.Thanks to Kudlow’s and Trump’s frequent updates, USDJPY and CL’s continuing ramp jobs and the incessant assault on VIX, the market can do no wrong. Unfortunately for the bulls, … continue reading →
If you haven’t noticed something strange about the market’s price action lately, you probably haven’t been paying attention. Hint: it involves more than the market “shrugging off” bad news. This is the 9th session in a row where oil futures temporarily popped up above their 200-day moving average. Today is also the 10th out of … continue reading →
Today is off to an interesting start. Following Trump’s call for negative interest rates and more grandstanding on China in New York yesterday, headline CPI came in hotter than expected but right in line with our forecast. As we’ve discussed, this is the result of oil and gas trending sideways in support of the upcoming … continue reading →
I saw this posted by a portfolio manager for a big state pension plan yesterday. It struck me just how significantly the market has changed over the past 20 years. Twenty years ago, stock buybacks were mostly illegal. They were considered manipulative. Today, they are commonplace — fueled largely by historically low interest rates, favorable … continue reading →
Today we celebrate America’s veterans. Please take the opportunity to thank a veteran in your life for their service and their sacrifice. There are many organizations dedicated to helping veterans which rely on charitable donations for the good work they do. One of my favorites, the Michael J Novosel Foundation, was established to assist National … continue reading →
It’s not too surprising that there’s been a firm floor under oil and gas prices, given the upcoming Aramco IPO. But, isn’t it funny how CL has popped above its SMA200 every single day this week, even in the wake of dismal inventory data? Just like it’s funny that ES, which pretty obviously should have … continue reading →