Jackson Hole Follies

As we await Jay Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole, the futures are slightly positive – backing off slightly from the 34-pt V-shaped recovery after yesterday’s run-in with hawkish Fed presidents and another brief 2s10s inversion. This morning, we’ll hear from Jim Bullard — a perennial dove — and Jay Powell himself. So, we should expect … continue reading →

Test Passed, So Far…

ES spent 6 1/2 hours yesterday anguishing over the trend line/neckline we discussed.  When the Fed minutes came out, it even broke down a bit from the rising channel it had constructed overnight.  The breakdown seemed like it was sticking.  But, just after the close, WTI spiked and VIX dumped. That’s all it took to … continue reading →

Put Up or Shut Up

It’s now been almost a month since we posted our analog-based forecast [see: Analog Watch July 15.]  If it’s valid, we should see a sharp selloff over the next few days which ushers in 9-12 months of increased volatility and losses. From that post: Ideally, an analog provides exceptionally accurate forecasts of a very significant … continue reading →