Interesting pause here at support. If a model I’m watching plays out, next week could be ugly. On the other hand…think of all the times we’ve seen a meltup during a low-volume holiday week. There are a few tells, as long as they’re not head-fakes. We’ll start with USDJPY, which has done absolutely nothing to … continue reading →
One glance at the Philadelphia Fed Index this morning, and you could find yourself wondering whether Powell was really talking about the “rest” of the world.Yet, the Fed supposedly remains hawkish. Never mind that the 10Y and the yield curve are telling us the rate hikes are drawing to a close. continued for members… … continue reading →
The big story yesterday was oil and gas, which have now fallen about 29% since our short call on Oct 23 [see: VIX Takes the Plunge.] Importantly, the decline has occurred without decimating stocks. And, the impact on November’s CPI – due out on Dec 12 – will be significant. Will it matter to the … continue reading →
A quick update on AAPL, which has reached two of our downside targets today… As we discussed prior to AAPL’s earnings report [see: All Eyes on AAPL] the stock had a gap to close and 200 DMA to backtest. The danger in reaching both targets was that AAPL would have to descend below the triangle … continue reading →
I turned on CNBC this morning just to see what the “experts” are saying. Basically, they’re all over the map – trying to explain how the fundamentals indicate various outcomes. Thankfully, our charts offer a clear path to SPX’s next downside objective: the 2.24 extension at 2703.62. Yes, again.But, if our yield curve model works … continue reading →
ES reached our next downside target on Friday, though SPX came up a few pennies short. The more interesting story is oil and gas, which — after tagging our downside targets on Friday — are both up nicely on reports of an OPEC production cutback. Will it be enough or in time to prop up … continue reading →
CL just reached our next downside target of 59.47… …and, RB has reached our target range of 1.58-1.62. This is important support for both which, if broken, would portend much more downside. This completes a nearly 23% gain for CL and a 25% gain for RB since our Oct 3 top call [see: VIX Takes … continue reading →
I have long looked at interest rates, inflation and politics as at least as important as supply and demand in forecasting oil and gas prices. After July’s 2.95% CPI print and subsequent spike in interest rates, it seemed obvious that the Fed faced a dilemma. From Currency Crisis on the Horizon: …the rise of inflation … continue reading →
Baffled by soaring futures in the wake of an election which ushered in gridlock? Don’t be. As we witnessed after Brexit and the US election in 2016, algos were easily driven higher by VIX and USDJPY. Last night was no exception. USDJPY, which had dropped below its latest straw man TL, suddenly reversed and spiked … continue reading →
Futures are off modestly on an important election day which will hopefully resolve plenty of unknowns.On the bullish side of the aisle: both ES and SPX are safely above and have backtested their 2.24 Fib extensions; oil and gas have fallen sharply to decent support levels; VIX is at a modest level with a clear … continue reading →