Goldman’s Slick Trick

As a chartist and technical analyst, I spend an inordinate amount of time thinking about how and why prices get where they’re going.  Like most who forecast markets every day, I gave up on the random walk hypothesis a long time ago.  It’s simply not consistent with the evidence splayed across my monitors every single day.  Goldman Sachs’ recent breakout is … continue reading →

Tick Tock

Between gas, rent and health care, official CPI rose 0.3% in December and 2.1% from a year ago.  It’s the highest since June 2014, and just a tad below the 2012 highs.  Of course, the official CPI data are as legit as employment data — which is to say “Not!”  For more, see John Williams’ explanation … continue reading →

Another Backtest

Head & Shoulders Patterns are wonderful chart patterns, providing solid advance warning of impending plunges in stocks.  But, their clearly defined trigger points and targets can also be used by those propping up “markets” to negate the move that would otherwise play out. Such is the case in SPX, where two different H&S Patterns have … continue reading →

Manipulating Oil for Fun and Profit

The EIA reported that crude inventories increased by 4.1 million barrels (+1.5MM expected), gasoline increased by 5.0 million barrels, and distillates increased by 8.4 million barrels.  It was an ugly inventory report, made all the worse by: (a) the recent DOE announcement of the sale of 8 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, (b) … continue reading →

The Trump Slump

If the rally over the past two months was the Trump Rally, will they call this the Trump Slump?  It’s been over three months since we had a bearish cross in the moving averages, though the follow-through hasn’t been very impressive…yet. We remain short with our downside targets essentially unchanged from last week. continued for members…