Futures are off about 10 points this morning in a rare holiday weekend drop……due primarily to a big drop in oil, which failed to top its plunging SMA10 and, instead, tested its SMA200 for the fifth time in the past six sessions. More importantly, it broke a trend line dating back to Oct 3.Unless it … continue reading →
The Dow isn’t a great index to follow or to chart, except for the fact that it’s a great “tell” when it comes to the narrative being promoted. Yesterday, when faced with the option of reversing at the trend line (below, in red) which has touched off four previous downturns, it broke out instead — … continue reading →
The futures are all set to deposit SPX at our next upside target (3306.51) on the opening bell, meaning a potential pop and drop. Caution is warranted, as a failure to push past resistance could presage a 7% drop. The algos are watching VIX’s plunges and CL’s bounce with interest, as something’s gotta give. continued … continue reading →
Lots of interesting goings on in the market this morning. A few random thoughts… Aramco is no doubt feeling lucky on the heels of its $4 billion additional raise, its final IPO tally totaling $29.4 billion given that OPEC just lowered estimates for crude demand in 2020. Funny how the timing worked out… Meanwhile, BoA … continue reading →
December 2019 headline CPI came in at 2.29% this morning, with a seasonally-adjusted drop from Nov 2019 coming in at -0.1%. This was based on a gas price YoY delta of +7.9%, well below the EIA’s own calculation of +9.10%. Had 9.10% been used, headline CPI would have printed at over 2.5% and MoM would … continue reading →
The YoY change in gas prices is highly correlated with CPI which, in turn, is highly correlated with interest rates. If December’s headline CPI (due out at 8:30 AM tomorrow) continues to track the YoY increase in gas prices, it could easily top 2.3-2.4%. What would the impact be on bond yields? And, how would … continue reading →
Payrolls missed this morning, coming in at 145K versus expectations of 160K. But, the more concerning data was the average hourly earnings which rose only 0.1% MoM and 2.9% YoY. Futures ignored the miss, as algos were much more focused on USDJPY’s threat to break out and VIX’s latest meltdown. Those who focus further out … continue reading →
Yesterday’s 93-point bounce off our backtest target was remarkable — not because it was so extreme or resulted in new all-time highs, but because it surprised so many market experts. The algos are not only very powerful (especially in an indecisive market), but are very difficult to rein in once they’re unleashed because of how … continue reading →
It was October 1989 and the stock market was in trouble. Two years after crashing 36% (including 20% in a single session) the S&P 500 had made a comeback and had climbed back to new all-time highs. But high inflation, slipping junk bond prices and failing S&Ls were in the headlines daily. On October 13, … continue reading →
I’ve seen one particular assessment over and over in the financial news this morning: The market’s rebound following Iran’s missile strikes last night was “surprising.” No, it is most certainly not surprising! Not even a little bit. Anyone who pays the least bit of attention to charts could have seen this coming a mile away. … continue reading →