We started posting about TSLA a little over a year ago when it dipped below important horizontal support [see: Can Tesla Avoid a Crash?] We’ve updated the charts multiple times since then, working to stay ahead of Musk’s obvious attempts to manipulate the stock. The harmonic picture has been tricky due to the presence of … continue reading →
Most of the rallies since our top call on Apr 30 have been followed by sharp sell-offs during the after-hours. This obviously makes it very difficult for trend followers who don’t trade in futures. But, it also smacks of insider/specialist positioning — sucking in those playing a rebound who are then stuck the following morning … continue reading →
After 2 1/2 weeks of a steady, orderly decline, stocks are poised to break out this morning. Is it another head fake, or does it represent an actual shift in direction?Fortunately, the algo factors offer some important clues. The critical price level to watch is ES 2844. continued for members… … continue reading →
Is this really, as Trump maintains, the “greatest economy ever?” Hardly. Sure, changes in the way that inflation and employment data are calculated/defined have allowed the government to report generally positive results. But, one needn’t dig far beneath the surface to realize that they not only don’t represent the real economy; they’re downright deceptive. Because … continue reading →
As we wait for the broader indices to do a little fine tuning, it’s worth taking a quick look at some of the more bearish developments that probably weren’t part of the script. First, AAPL broke down below its SMA200 yesterday to tag our 182.85 target. This, in addition to the channel breakdown, leaves it … continue reading →
Though it is getting a little monotonous, I’ll never get tired of saying that we’re about to tag our next downside target. The past two weeks of downside have been a great recruiting tool for chart patterns and this website in particular. A note to prospective members…we’re currently offering auto-renew monthly subscriptions at half-off the … continue reading →
Add Xi Jinping to the list of luminaries who sent Trump a “beautiful letter” — most of whom were later mocked, scorned or fleeced. The long and distinguished list includes Barack Obama, Kim Jong Un, Jimmy Carter, Shinzo Abe, James Clapper, Bill Belichick, Princess Di, Hatice Cengiz, et cetera, et cetera… No word yet on … continue reading →
SPX needed about 22 points downside to reach the support of its SMA50, a rising channel bottom, and a falling channel bottom. ES, which finally reached our 2655 target from last week [see FOMC: Endgame] is currently off 30 points. At this rate, SPX will breach its support on the open, especially if USDJPY doesn’t … continue reading →
A little over a week ago, SPX pushed to new all-time highs. I had a hard time getting excited about the upside. From the Apr 29 update: SPX has been melting up so long that I don’t think bears will rush for the exits if it tops 2940.91. In fact, we might see some selling … continue reading →
Despite the ample support markets are receiving from the algos (witness yesterday’s knee jerk reaction to VIX’s smackdown) our yield curve model continues to sound the alarm for equities. The only question is how long the delicate equilibrium can be maintained. Rates can decline for many reasons. When due to central bank easing, for example, … continue reading →