It was a rather listless after-hours, with ES meandering back and forth across its SMA10 following yesterday’s continuing bounce off our initial downside target.Consumer sentiment and leading indicators will be released at 10am this morning, perhaps offering traders some direction. In the meantime, oil and gas have bounced, USDJPY has slumped, and VIX is back … continue reading →
Lots of targets being hit, lately. We’ll start with EURUSD, which tagged the channel top we had originally scheduled for later in September. ES nailed our .786 and channel midline target. VIX slightly exceeded our 16.66 target.And, most importantly, WTI came within .07 of our primary downside target and has yet to bounce much. Since … continue reading →
Plenty of big chart developments this morning, with many of our targets close at hand. The biggest potential development is ES’ red channel breaking down – at least for the moment. While this could be a garden variety V-shaped dip to 2803-2810, the run up in VIX (+11.7%) and continuing plunge in oil and gas … continue reading →
It has taken a strong bounce in CL/RBOB and a 6% smackdown in VIX just to produce a 6 point gain in futures this morning. But, for now at least, ES’ rising red channel remains intact. Only if SPX/ES pushed back above their .886 Fibs would I have much faith in a bigger bounce. Though … continue reading →
The current crisis in Turkey has been a long time coming. A little over two years ago [see: Turkey Sinks to New Lows], we discussed how Recep Erdoğan’s heavy-handedness would come back to haunt Turkey. This latest action, however, will turn the markets on Erdogan. With no one to bully, hold accountable or throw into jail until … continue reading →
The currency crisis in Turkey is finally spilling over into the euro, which is finally breaking down. Not to worry, as we’ve been here before.The complication, of course, is that CPI remains stubbornly high at 2.9%. This is dangerous territory and greatly exacerbates the difficulty the Fed faces in threading the needle of interest rate … continue reading →
RBOB came within .0045 of our next downside target this morning – an 8.4% gain for those who shorted on July 27. For those satisfied with the easy money, 2.002 is as good a place to get out as any. For those willing to roll the dice just a bit, there is more downside potential … continue reading →
Watching the goings on at Tesla these days, I’m reminded of the Queen classic “I’m Going Slightly Mad.” I’m one card short of a full deck, I’m not quite a shilling One wave short of a shipwreck, I’m not my usual top billing I’m coming down with a fever, I’m really out to sea This … continue reading →
We all know about the strong earnings, stimulative tax cuts, low unemployment, etc. which have driven this recovery. These are the headlines that scream for our attention every day. Here’s a quick counterpoint: the algo-driven aspect of the recovery. For those not familiar with Fibonacci ratios, here’s a quick primer. Suffice it to say that SPX has paid … continue reading →
With the July highs taken out yesterday, all that remains is the January highs. Thanks to a return to the Dec 2016-Jan 2018 regime of VIX bashing (lowest since Jan 16 this morning), there appears little doubt. continued for members… … continue reading →