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The graphic below, direct from the ECB, tells a fairly bleak story. Rate hikes? Don’t hold your breath.The EURUSD was virtually unmoved on Draghi’s press conference. In other words, nothing he said surprised or even resonated with investors. It’s been a while since we devoted a post to the lowly euro, which has gone nowhere … continue reading →
Last night, I attended a very enjoyable holiday get-together at which I was probably the only technical analyst among a hundred or so quants. After solving the problems of nuclear proliferation and ensuring that the paintings in the room were perfectly level (who says finance guys don’t know how to party?) the discussion got down … continue reading →
In our last update on the Dow, we noted that it had not only fallen through an important trend line but its SMA200 as well. From All Good Things on Oct 11: DJIA is flirting with breaking below a long-term trend line and SMA200. A failure here opens the door to 23781, another 6.2% lower. … continue reading →
SPX completed the H&S Pattern yesterday, and dipped to within 4 points of the white .886 retracement for good measure. As we wrote yesterday, several things needed to happen in order for the H&S to play out: For a breakdown, we’d want to see VIX break out and not retreat from the red TL. We’d … continue reading →
This has been one of the more satisfying years since I first began writing pebblewriter 7 1/2 years ago. Yes, our forecasts have been accurate. But, it was even more gratifying that the themes we identified earlier in the year (oil’s collapse, interest rates topping out, CPI tumbling, etc.) played out as expected. They were … continue reading →
Don’t look now, but COMP is approaching our 6760 target. As we discussed on Oct 10 [see: Plan B] COMP faced significant downside if its 200-DMA didn’t hold. Bottom line, it didn’t. It was off as much as 13.3% last month before beginning a bounce that was destined to fail. Next week, it will get … continue reading →
Look no further than the Fed for the confusion reigning on Wall Street. It was only a few weeks ago that they were preparing us for multiple rate hikes, as we were far from the neutral rate. Then, the story shifted, indicating we were just below the neutral rate. Yesterday, they leaked a story to … continue reading →
NOTE: The Dec 6 post is combined with this one from yesterday. All targets remain unchanged from last week. * * * Technical analysis encompasses a wide array of indicators — sentiment, flow, volume, open interest, moving averages, momentum, chart patterns and Fibonacci patterns. Many fundamental analysts disparage the practice, but begrudgingly dabble when a … continue reading →
Yesterday’s targets are still intact with the exception of USDJPY, which broke down in order to accommodate SPX’s SMA200 backtest.If this is a garden variety backtest, the bears have nothing to get excited about other than a nice 50-pt short trade. Note that the last time USDJPY broke down, however, it turned into a 190-pt … continue reading →