With Deutsche Bank soon to be the beneficiary of both a fire sale and a government bailout, and the Saudi’s reportedly having become besties with Iran, last night’s 10-pt swoon in the futures has been erased. DB is up 7.7% off its lows, and 4.7% since our bottom call, so everything must be okay. If CL … continue reading →
We’ve talked about DB’s dangerously leveraged position. From yesterday’s Trouble Brewing: Deutsche reported OTC (not total) derivatives in its 2015 annual report of €41.9 trillion, about $47.3 trillion in USD. With Tier 1 capital of €48.7 billion, this works out to a multiple of derivatives to Tier 1 capital of 861, or a wipeout ratio of … continue reading →
SPX nailed our first target yesterday, and came within inches of our second. After the close, the futures collapsed and finished the job, only to soar after the debate results suggested that FOMC members didn’t necessarily need to start polishing their resumes. However, the news cycle came roaring back overnight. Deutsche Bank apparently didn’t go … continue reading →
All eyes are on Deutsche Bank and Turkey this morning. It’s been a while since I calculated wipeout ratios [see: Banks’ Wipeout Ratios], but DB is in worse shape than any of the other banks I looked at last year, with the possible exception of Goldman Sachs. Deutsche reported OTC (not total) derivatives in its 2015 annual report of … continue reading →
On Aug 30, with USDJPY at 102.47, we put a target of 104.24 on it, noting that it represented the top of a well-established channel and a key Fib level. USDJPY obliged by tagging our target three days later, then reversing as expected. At the time, there seemed to be considerable downside potential. A client who … continue reading →
With our latest forecast well on its way to proving its worth, I’m going to take the day to catch up on some of the secondary charts that have been woefully neglected. Today, the focus is on oil. Will there or will there not be an agreement to cap production? Reuters suggested overnight that it was … continue reading →
Critics are roundly denouncing the Fed’s latest failure to launch as gutless, feeble-minded insanity. And, they’re right. There will come a time when the folly of not doing more to stave off the inflation part of stagflation is obvious. But, for now, the only data they’re dependent upon is the “market.” And, all the major … continue reading →
As we expected, the BoJ left QQE largely unchanged. Rates are unchanged, except for a yield curve twist that could marginally steepen the curve. The amount of money being thrown at stocks/bonds remains unchanged except that the TOPIX will be emphasized over the Nikkei 225 (at least until they own most of the TOPIX too.) From … continue reading →
Less than 24 hours to go for the BoJ decision, and about 30 for the FOMC’s. And, equities are ramping again in eager anticipation of a non-event. QE, QQE, ZIRP, NIRP, ETF purchasing, VIX, CL, TNX and currency manipulation got us here. Without them…well, the “market” would rather not think about that. Kuroda and Yellen are … continue reading →
I chart DX every day and post an update more often than not. But, with the FOMC and the BoJ both meeting this week, it seems like a good time to look at the big picture for the greenback. Last May [see: Update on DX: May 6, 2016] we noted that DX was at a … continue reading →