When you live by the algo, you have to be prepared to die by the algo. With only 10% of daily equity volume being driven by fundamental, discretionary, carbon-based investors, 90% of the volume is subject to the whims of the silicon-based traders. This morning, we have the S&P 500 trying very hard to hold … continue reading →
When the Fed, which employs hundreds of economists and PhD’s says they don’t understand inflation, is there any hope left for humanity? Come on, guys. It’s pretty straightforward…wouldn’t you say? On the one hand, there’s the fairly significant $14 trillion in financial assets you’ve bought up over the past few years. Then, there’s basic commodities … continue reading →
I consider gold a good indicator of the inflation fever out there. Note that it recently broke down from its latest rising channel (white.) So, it would be easy to say it’s done, that there’s little chance of it reaching 1380. Readers will recall I suggested bowing out at 1348.60 [the yellow arrow, see: Sep … continue reading →
Welcome to another FOMC day. If you read yesterday’s post, there is absolutely nothing new to report today. SPX, DJIA, COMP, NDX and NYA are all at or near all-time highs, while XLF and RUT are at important resistance. As usual, there has been much speculation regarding the Fed’s future plans. As usual, the FOMC … continue reading →
In our last update on RUT [see: Feb 13 Update] I noted that RUT had returned to test an important Fib level at 1392 and the top of a long-term channel after a very modest setback the first time around a few months earlier. The path forward was a little murky, so I laid out … continue reading →
SPX came within 2 points of our upside target yesterday in a VIX-inspired meltup that was focused on getting and keeping the index above the 2500 mark. While VIX has already staged obvious breakdowns of its rising yellow TL and rising purple channel, it has managed to keep stocks on the rise by simply drifting… … continue reading →
When I first started pebblewriter.com over six years ago bad news was bad news, dips sometimes developed into routs, and there was good money to be made from directional bets. We profited handsomely from shorting in July 2011, September 2012, May 2015, and November 2015. But, central bankers have become increasingly involved in propping up … continue reading →
VIX, USDJPY and CL are all working to keep stocks afloat in the run-up to this week’s FOMC meeting. Aside from its rising purple channel breaking down, VIX dropped below its recent low of 10.02 on Friday. This is nothing new, as it’s important to central banks that their policies be seen as beneficial to … continue reading →
SPX backtested the former highs yesterday, coming within 0.46 of our downside target before being magically levitated by the threat of a drop in VIX and intraday pushes in both DXY and CL. Unfortunately, for the bulls, those pushes have fizzled as real, live geopolitical concerns have once again bubbled to the surface.continued for members… … continue reading →
CPI came in at 1.9%, exactly where we expected and good enough to keep DXY steady…for now. From Was That It? on Sep 6: The EIA is showing a very healthy monthly increase in average gas prices for August (3.9% MoM and 8.4% YoY.) I believe this is understated, but my back of the envelope … continue reading →