VIX toyed with important support all day yesterday, keeping equities in the dark as to the next steps.As a result, ES spent the entire day continuing to dip below its SMA10 and SMA20 — even closing below a nice little trend line off its earlier highs as VIX refused to dive below the all-important yellow … continue reading →
So far, the bounce is going pretty much as expected. VIX continues to tumble, USDJPY continues to rebound, and CL continues to sell off. About the only surprise so far is that traders seem to have taken Dudley’s nonsensical hawkishness to heart. Given the hesitation USDJPY initially showed in reversing, however, it’s just what the … continue reading →
It was fun while it lasted. After 23 straight sessions of VIX being suppressed below its long-term channel bottom, we finally got a taste of real volatility. This morning, VIX is off over 15% and screaming back toward its recent lows in the absence of any further provocation from our Tweeter in Chief.Has the risk … continue reading →
SPX reached both of our downside targets yesterday, closing slightly below our 2440.81 target at 2438.17. It was a nice 50+ point gain from our short at 2490.10 on Tuesday [12:18 Update], and came reasonably close to Wednesday’s forecast.The slight overshoot did little damage to our rising red channel. Bulls are no doubt more concerned … continue reading →
As we discussed last month [see: Jul 14, 2017 Update] the Nikkei faced important overhead resistance at the .886 Fib retracement at 20306 (an error, should have read 20286.) As I noted at the time: At SPX prepares to make a new all-time high, we have to take note that NKD has not yet pushed … continue reading →
SPX slightly overshot (1.38 pts) our initial downside target yesterday before VIX was reigned back in, prompting an halting recovery for the remainder of the session. With futures currently off 12 points, yesterday’s lows are going to be tested again — with an excellent chance of tagging our next downside target unless USDJPY bounces strongly … continue reading →
What a difference a day makes. Yesterday started off with the usual VIX ramp that turned into yet another breakdown below support, sending SPX to new all-time highs. Our Blusterer-in-Chief turned that around in a jiffy. Moments after we adopted a short position at 2490.10, he raised the rhetorical stakes with North Korea, promising fire … continue reading →
Did you hear it? Even on a day like yesterday, with ridiculously low volume, VIX was still whispering in algos’ ears, “look how much I’ve fallen….in fact, I just broke down…time to buy.” Never mind the fact that its regular overnight ramp job (when futures are easily propped up) was the only reason it had … continue reading →
Can anything derail the daily drip, drip, drip of higher prices? Just last week, we had a whiff — just a hint of a tiny pause. But, this morning, SPX is knocking at the door again – threatening a small breakout that will dash that scenario. I can hardly wait (sarc.) Instead, we’ll turn our … continue reading →
If you’ve enjoyed the past few days, you’ll probably enjoy today as well. The market seems to be in maintenance mode, with just enough algo-juicing to prevent anything really nasty, but not quite enough to make any meaningful headway. Yes, VIX, I’m looking at you. continued for members… … continue reading →