Most students of the markets are aware of the important relationships between oil and gasoline prices, inflation and interest rates. Understanding these relationships can provide useful insight into the economy and broader markets. Digging deeper into the trends, reversals and divergences, however, yields evidence that the relationships are nowhere near as random as the casual … continue reading →
SPX has now achieved two of the three milestones that could see it return to an unfettered bullish state of affairs. Thanks to the continuing and precision meltdown of VIX, it was able to not only hold the IH&S neckline, but pop back above its Fib 2.24 extension at 2703.62. And, lest there was any … continue reading →
It took six sessions, but SPX is finally back above the neckline we laid out two weeks ago. For the bulls, this was an important achievement. It not only gives them a new, higher level of vital support than the SMA200. But, it gives them a specific upside target which. Note that IH&S upside targets … continue reading →
Friday marked SPX’s second attempt to top the neckline of a sizeable IH&S Pattern. The ramp couldn’t hold, however, and the index tumbled as much as 35 points from its highs. The futures currently point to another attempt on 2670. With the Syrian conflict seemingly on the back burner again, will the third attempt succeed?continued … continue reading →
Futures have opened up a 14-pt gain overnight, positioning SPX to finally break through its IH&S neckline at 2670. Leading the way: USDJPY, which broke out yesterday… …and VIX, which is finally breaking down after weeks of indecision. The bulls are not out of the woods just yet. SPX still has to hold 2670 and … continue reading →
It’s day 4 of the nearly complete IH&S. USDJPY, a drag on equities for much of yesterday, apparently got the memo and is threatening another breakout.On the other hand, CL and RB – yesterday’s algo treats – are slumping and VIX remains non-committal. Put it all together, and SPX/ES remain within striking distance of a … continue reading →
In our last major update [see: Jan 26 Update] we noted that gold, 1355 at the time, had reached the same price level at which it had frequently reversed. Even though we’d had a bullseye at 1377-1380 for over a year, it had stopped short several times. GC is sitting just below the neckline of … continue reading →
More excitement out of the Oval Office this morning, as our Stable Genius in Chief’s tweets suggest the pressure might be getting to be too much. First came the tweet threatening an actual shooting war with Russia……which was quickly followed by a tweet extending an olive branch. Was the addition of a question mark at … continue reading →
From a charting standpoint, the tide turned yesterday when COMP reached an intersection of three channel lines. COMP has reached its own crossroads, meaning it should at least take a breather or has reached a turning point. Note that VIX is nudging back above the little red TL. I believe this is a good time … continue reading →
Last week, ES and SPX broke out of a falling channel on a combination of Bullard’s and Kudlow’s jawboning and USDJPY’s breakout. This was followed up by some truthiness from Jay Powell and a failure of DXY to break out, which landed ES/SPX back in their falling channels at Friday’s close. With a bullish IH&S … continue reading →