Deutsche Bank: Will it Survive?

We’ve talked about DB’s dangerously leveraged position.  From yesterday’s Trouble Brewing: Deutsche reported OTC (not total) derivatives in its 2015 annual report of €41.9 trillion, about $47.3 trillion in USD.  With Tier 1 capital of  €48.7 billion, this works out to a multiple of derivatives to Tier 1 capital of 861, or a wipeout ratio of … continue reading →

Important Support Just Below

SPX nailed our first target yesterday, and came within inches of our second.  After the close, the futures collapsed and finished the job, only to soar after the debate results suggested that FOMC members didn’t necessarily need to start polishing their resumes. However, the news cycle came roaring back overnight.  Deutsche Bank apparently didn’t go … continue reading →

The Day After

Critics are roundly denouncing the Fed’s latest failure to launch as gutless, feeble-minded insanity.  And, they’re right.  There will come a time when the folly of not doing more to stave off the inflation part of stagflation is obvious. But, for now, the only data they’re dependent upon is the “market.”  And, all the major … continue reading →

What to Expect

Less than 24 hours to go for the BoJ decision, and about 30 for the FOMC’s.  And, equities are ramping again in eager anticipation of a non-event.  QE, QQE, ZIRP, NIRP, ETF purchasing, VIX, CL, TNX and currency manipulation got us here.  Without them…well, the “market” would rather not think about that. Kuroda and Yellen are … continue reading →