Algos took off following yesterday’s “news” that a China tariff deal was in the works, ignoring the admission shortly thereafter that the news was, indeed fake. Why no repercussions? Simple. By then, ES had topped the H&S neckline — stopping out shorts who then piled in on the long side. VIX’s ongoing smackdown didn’t hurt … continue reading →
In our last update on the Dow [see: Dec 11 Update] I mentioned that it was coming up on important support. if DJIA should happen to plunge below its purple .886 at 23755, I’d sure want to be short. As it turned out, we had less than a week to wait. DJIA dropped through 23755 … continue reading →
Futures are off 7 points as we approach the open……up about 10 points from the overnight lows that saw VIX gap back above its SMA100. While theoretically important, we often see these types of moves after hours — the sole purpose of which is to provide VIX an opportunity to break down the following morning. … continue reading →
December 24 was a pivotal day. As we noted at the time, most of our downside targets, some from several months prior, were tagged [see: Throwing the Game.] ES reached our H&S target. So far, it has bounced 13.3%.Oil reached our 43.50 target and has bounced 25.8%.RBOB reached our 1.2603 target and has bounced 16.2%.AAPL … continue reading →
The rising wedge we’ve been watching develop has made no further progress, but has merely extended as we approach OPEX Friday.With so much riding on whether it breaks down or breaks out, we’ll take a look at the big picture. One thing’s for sure: the next move will be measured in hundreds of points. continued … continue reading →
S&P futures came to within 20 points of the neckline of the H&S which nicely forecast December’s 300-pt plunge before finally taking a rest last night. Yet, as the charts indicate, the latest drop has (so far) merely tested the bottom of a rising wedge. Should ES bounce from these levels, the upside case remains … continue reading →
As expected, CPI came in below 2% this morning. At 1.9%, it has clearly reached the level at which the Fed would have a tougher time justifying additional rate hikes.Futures, which were already off a few points, are settling lower. The question now shifts to whether inflation is too low – especially given the much … continue reading →
We’ve had a nice bounce in most of our charts since reaching downside targets. AAPL has risen a decent 7% since reaching our 144.48 target on Jan 3. COMP has spiked a more impressive 12.2% since slightly overshooting our 6222.48 target. RB has recovered 14.7% since reaching 1.2603 and CL has spiked an impressive 22.2% since … continue reading →
On December 24, the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets met “to discuss coordination efforts to assure normal market operations.” Most people call the PWG the Plunge Protection Team. Can you blame them? ES rebounded 10.4% since then, and “all” it took was a carefully constructed 45% collapse in VIX. As we approach our next … continue reading →
The algo-driven meltup continues, with ES currently showing a 24-pt gain primarily on the back of CL’s bounce off its SMA20 and VIX’s gradual asphyxiation.As ES approaches the neckline of the H&S Pattern it completed and paid off so handsomely, we’re left to wonder whether SPX will ever pay its off. continued for members.… … continue reading →