As we await Jay Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole, the futures are slightly positive – backing off slightly from the 34-pt V-shaped recovery after yesterday’s run-in with hawkish Fed presidents and another brief 2s10s inversion. This morning, we’ll hear from Jim Bullard — a perennial dove — and Jay Powell himself. So, we should expect … continue reading →
ES spent 6 1/2 hours yesterday anguishing over the trend line/neckline we discussed. When the Fed minutes came out, it even broke down a bit from the rising channel it had constructed overnight. The breakdown seemed like it was sticking. But, just after the close, WTI spiked and VIX dumped. That’s all it took to … continue reading →
Actually, it’s the 5th test in the past 10 sessions of this internal trend line that, by all rights, shouldn’t be very important. If the market weren’t so fragile, I’m sure we would have seen new highs somewhere along the way. Even with VIX hammered by 35% since the Aug 5 lows, however, ES has … continue reading →
Futures weren’t able to push through resistance yesterday despite several algo-goosing efforts by the administration. This leaves an opportunity for one more downturn before Jackson Hole gets rolling. continued for members… … continue reading →
Our analog remains on track, with the two session bounce currently testing the same trend line resistance that shut down the two previous bounces.The next session or two should help fine tune our timing. continued for members… … continue reading →
While stocks are causing whiplash for investors everywhere, bonds continue their predictable ways — begrudgingly getting the respect they deserve. Yesterday, the 10Y tagged our 15.54 target set late last year [see: Dec 26 Update on Bonds.] It now sits at critical support, seemingly holding the fate of equities in its hands. continued for members… … continue reading →
SPX plunged 86 points yesterday to 2839.64, 4 points below the Day 13 optimized price target indicated by our analog [see: Analog Watch July 15] when last updated on Aug 5. The dilemma that target posed is that SPX already tagged it on Aug 5. It was unclear, therefore, whether we’d get a slightly lower … continue reading →
In Seinfeld lore, the Soup Nazi was notorious for denying soup to those who didn’t follow a strict regimen and express proper reverence when ordering his amazing soup. Even a minor infraction would elicit a fierce “no soup for you!” In a recent conversation with a friend who went to Wall Street when I did … continue reading →
Core CPI excludes the volatile food and energy component. We’ve heard that expression countless times. It’s intended to calm everybody down — inflation isn’t as bad as it seems if we back out rapidly rising prices in food and energy. The BLS is even conditioned to explain the monthly data in the same way every … continue reading →
It’s now been almost a month since we posted our analog-based forecast [see: Analog Watch July 15.] If it’s valid, we should see a sharp selloff over the next few days which ushers in 9-12 months of increased volatility and losses. From that post: Ideally, an analog provides exceptionally accurate forecasts of a very significant … continue reading →